FISH STORIES / BLOG

I couldn't make my Market Timing Calls for Clients without the Intermarket Analysis work that I do - which is beyond the Macro, Fundamental, Sentiment and Technical Analysis I provide. Here's a cute-ish play-by-play on why and how I use Intermarket Analysis to time...

Funny Ha-Ha or Funny Strange I am going to share an inside joke with you, and then talk about how this market is one giant Inside Joke. For clients in my Live Trading Room and readers of my Gone Fishing Newsletter, you know how I have been studying and trying hard to...

Turnaround Tuesday Was Late Markets were weak at the open with Unicorns - IGV and FFTY companies - flying down as the overbought momentum tech plays continued to have profit taking. Some of the selling is the continued Rotation from Momentum into Value but it is also...

It was a dramatic day in that my recent posts to sell Bonds and Gold/Miners happened much faster than I expected, but also in that I potentially discovered a reason - outside of my published analysis - as to why stocks, bonds, gold moved so strongly today. Quick...

Gold and Miners have done nothing wrong to warrant me selling them today. In fact, they have performed beyond expectations since I called for a Gold rally in my June 6 podcast for DailyFX and again updated Gold thesis for SeeItMarket this August.  Samantha LaDuc, July...

Welcome to September... Despite a strong week last week - after four weeks of sideways chop - markets opened down to start the new month with Russell the weakest. The stock and major macro moves today were pretty much over within the 1st 15 minutes: USD continues...

On Friday I was asked for my analysis on Carvana - ticker CVNA - for publication at CCN, an online markets and crypto publication out of Norway. Below is the exact analysis I sent, and here is the article they wrote from it - featuring a few quotes of mine that...

Market Thoughts It's been over a year now since the 'official' start of the US-China Trade War, if picking Day 1: July 6, 2018 – US implements first China-specific tariffs. I wrote about this disconnect between market price action and valuations in my SeeItMarket...

Market Thoughts When is the last time we had Rate cuts and QE at the same time?! We just got both and although it may not time or rhyme with 1995 and 1998 or 2001 and 2007, it certainly does feel foreboding given both trade tensions AND economic slowdown.  THAT was my...

Market Thoughts Despite market at all-time-highs, positive GDP growth, unemployment at 50 yr lows and, as a result, consumer confidence near 20 year highs, oh, and even with fiscal and monetary conditions at their loosest in decades, Fed Chair Powell announced the...

Market Thoughts Big deficits and looser monetary policy are negative USD, but as long as Currency-hedged US Treasury Yields remain negative then the USD is not weakened significantly. And that is in part why ECB, BOJ et al keep doing it – keep range-bound USD in good...

Market Thoughts Last few weeks I have posted my market timing calls and so far so good (tad early or wrong on oil+gas plays potentially): Thinking out loud, here are my short-timeframe Macro-to-Micro Calls for the next few weeks (already detailed in last week’s...

Market Thoughts  Bifurcated Rate Cut Sentiment When Fed member John Williams suggested last Thursday  that ‘r-star’ is .50%, markets took it as a sign that a 50 bps rate cut is in the cards. Bonds rallied, markets recovered their day’s losses and Gold and Silver...

Market Thoughts   Central Banks On Parade Markets have no fear. Stocks are at all time highs and Volatility is at all time lows. ECB, BOJ and FED are all due to report their rate decisions in the next week. Draghi goes first. And judging from the price action you...

Market Thoughts To catch you up on Last Week’s Fishing Lessons / Daily Weather Reports: Monday (yesterday): Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Volatility Friday: Market Thoughts: Oil About To Get Busy? Thursday: Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Gold Wednesday: Market...

Market Thoughts My volatility senses were piqued last Monday. I sent out a warning for a market rollover: If you thought that was a nice move from 3018 to 2985, well consider this: my breadth indicators (this is but one) are indicating the roll-over is just starting....

Market Thoughts Stocks faded hard into the close Friday, along with Gold and Silver. This was the worst week since end of May. So what changed? Most point to the market discounting that the Fed might not be dovish enough - cutting by only 25 bps versus 50 bps. Market...

Market Thoughts Gold Skyrocketed. Why? We have experienced a lot of dis-inflationary headwinds from the synchronized global slowdown and ultra loose monetary policies in the US, Europe and Asia specifically but globally in general. What could change these dis...

Market Thoughts There's a lot to unpack in the growing instability of the markets right now so I'm going to resort to equal parts summarizing with granularity. Banks - All four Big Banks have reported - C, BAC, JPM, WFC  - and all delivered positive earnings surprises...

Market Thoughts Last week, the market 'got its' cookie. (Promised Rate Cuts=Cookie) Bloomberg: Stocks broadly rallied Wednesday after the publication of Powell’s remarks before the House Financial Services Committed in which the Fed Chairman emphasized rising risks to...

Market Thoughts "What makes it so hard is not that you had it bad, but that you're that pissed that so many others had it good." Melvin Udall in As Good As It Gets movie Correct me if I'm wrong, but many traders are in a state of angst. Despite all-time-highs, they...

My cheery, live trading room moderator, WallStreetJane, can be heard calling out, "Samantha's Fault!" And she's right. All FIVE Daily Market Thoughts from LAST WEEK (July 8-12) are now posted in the right place... under FISHING LESSONS for non-members, Daily Weather...

Ok, so it's not just one guest captain, but a whole fleet. This weekend I did my usual perusal of macro reading and I couldn't help but click on each of these articles from Bloomberg contributors and want to share them all! What the heck is going on with the bond...

Market Thoughts If you give a mouse a cookie is a children's book that came immediately to mind when reading the constant debate about the slippery slope of 'allowing' markets to influence the Fed's monetary policies. The plot goes like this: A boy gives a cookie to a...

Market Thoughts Powell is loathe to cut, but has been intonating Fed will cut. They have have already acknowledged “Inflation Shortcomings” which emboldens rate traders who have already front-run the rate cuts. But will they cut 25 or 50bp? And what of the US Dollar?...

Market Thoughts I can't use the same title of my Daily post from yesterday again - Stocks and Safe Havens Rise Together - but that's what's still happening. U.S. Stocks Rise to Records while Treasuries Rally! And as if on cue: Futures reached $3,000 just in time for...

Market Thoughts Surprisingly, I think the market is acting ‘efficiently’ this week. With an expected move of $35 on Monday - $52 for the week (either direction) – we had our tag of that $35 point move Monday then faded on profit taking/expiring options. Now we likely...

Market Thoughts I added no Volatility into the G20 event. I expected 'optics' not specifics. There was talk of compromise, some would say can-kicking: Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on an another $300 billion of Chinese goods (versus the earlier threat...

Bryan Rich runs Billionaire's Portfolio and writes an almost daily column for his service as well as contributes at Forbes. This post caught my attention as it succinctly lays out a theme I have seen presented about a month ago by Bond Manager Peter Tchir.   Bitcoin...

Market Thoughts Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not You live for the fight when it's all that you've got Woah, we're half way there Woah, livin' on a prayer Take my hand, we'll make it I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer ... Bon Jovi As we close the first half of 2019...