by Andrew O’Connell | Dec 2, 2020
Andrew O’Connell, LaDucTrading’s Director of Research and Trader Education, has posted his first Trade Research piece for LaDucTrading EDGE members, but we are making it available for all members as a sample of his work. If you are not an EDGE client, we invite you to upgrade! Then you too can receive Samantha’s highest probability […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Nov 17, 2020
A Reopening Rotation Rally is underway since last Monday when Pfizer announced a promising vaccine candidate which sent value stocks – energy, emerging markets, banks, and many small caps and oversold economically-sensitive plays – into FOMO chases while...
by Samantha LaDuc | Nov 17, 2020
Europe is leading the rotation party on many accounts. Here’s a chart courtesy @TheMarketEar: Euro STOXX 50 relative to S&P 500 (blue, lhs) shows Europe is leading SPY. Also MSCI Europe Value vs Growth (grey, rhs) shows Value leads. Just so happens the #1...
by Samantha LaDuc | Nov 2, 2020
Judging from today’s action – tech lower, reflation trades higher – market seems to be pricing in a Biden win with Blue Wave Congress. The new TINA? This is at the same time HYG sees its worst week of outflows last week since Feb and SPX futures are most long in two years at same […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Oct 13, 2020
The Biden Bid turned into the expectation of bigger and better Fiscal Stimulus. As a result, election premium collapsed last week into Monday (see blue line) setting free the market bulls: Suddenly, sentiment has shifted for a ‘Blue Wave’ election sweep, and with it, the BidenBid continues to push VIX down and USDCNH down (Yuan […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Sep 30, 2020
Month-end mark-up. I get it, but what happens when the month is over? OK, so today I expected futures to follow through – to the downside. It didn’t happen. However, on the upside, the market tagged my $3393.52 SPX WEEKLY resistance price target perfectly today before reversing – on what else, news of being ‘far […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Sep 29, 2020
FED has been buying a large share of TIPS recently – approaching 20% of the market this year. So at the same time they are talking up inflation they are artificially driving up inflation expectations. That should obviously have some inflationary impact on the TIPs premia, hence an artificial boost of the apparent breakevens. Even […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Sep 22, 2020
Elections are uncertain. Volatility not so much. We are 29 trading days from the election. Historical pattern is for a lower SPX and stronger USD: As my recent client posts and recent calls in my trading room point out, I have been fully expecting a higher US Dollar and weakness in Tech. We’ve had substantial […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Sep 11, 2020
After the best August in 36 years, the Nasdaq lost 10% in 3 days – the fastest drop ever. My last client post intonated as such: Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse 2020 so far (@ukarlewitz) Fastest bear market Highest % down days Fastest bull market Shortest bear market Highest % up days […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Aug 28, 2020
Back on August 18th, I alerted clients that a “Volatility Impulse” was getting closer as a suggestion to really reflect on trend/swing longs and think seriously about tightening stops. Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer I wanted to follow up today as we have had many Macro news events that did in fact […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Aug 27, 2020
My client letter Aug 18th: A higher USD would likely time with a needed Tech pause, or pullback, depending on the rate of change. One key theme I have had for weeks is a Rate Spike. It is playing out but the 10-yr yield chart needs to pullback gently and shallow to...
by Samantha LaDuc | Aug 25, 2020
Intraday Call to Protect Lumber Profits and/or Short The above prices are from Monday August 24th closing prices of Lumber – with high of $859.95 – and two popular ETFs WOOD and CUT. I bring this up as I suggested Monday in my live trading room that I believed it was time to tightly […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Aug 18, 2020
I have a philosophy on trouble. Don’t feed it, and maybe it will go away. –Frank Sinatra Let’s face it, this market party is getting really wild and for those who don’t want trouble, it’s a good time to leave. I know not what will happen next, but I am envisioning some type of ‘distrubance’ […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Aug 13, 2020
You want to know when I think Yields really get moving higher? After Bonds reverse of course… Inflation absolutely looks poised for higher, in time, which would support my yield pop thesis as well: Same TIP:TLT ratio from a slightly different perspective, but still bullish next few months, especially as Fed likely does not step […]
by Samantha LaDuc | Aug 8, 2020
Going into July, I wrote clients that I was bearish USD, bullish the market and bullish Precious Metals – specifically Gold with Silver and Miners (but also Palladium and Platinum as discussed regularly in my live trading room). Here’s how that market timing call came...