Andrew O’Connell, LaDucTrading’s Director of Research and Trader Education, has posted his first Trade Research piece for LaDucTrading EDGE members, but we are making it available for all members as a sample of his work. If you are not an EDGE client, we invite you to upgrade! Then you too can receive Samantha’s highest probability […]
Judging from today’s action – tech lower, reflation trades higher – market seems to be pricing in a Biden win with Blue Wave Congress. The new TINA? This is at the same time HYG sees its worst week of outflows last week since Feb and SPX futures are most long in two years at same […]
The Biden Bid turned into the expectation of bigger and better Fiscal Stimulus. As a result, election premium collapsed last week into Monday (see blue line) setting free the market bulls: Suddenly, sentiment has shifted for a ‘Blue Wave’ election sweep, and with it, the BidenBid continues to push VIX down and USDCNH down (Yuan […]
Month-end mark-up. I get it, but what happens when the month is over? OK, so today I expected futures to follow through – to the downside. It didn’t happen. However, on the upside, the market tagged my $3393.52 SPX WEEKLY resistance price target perfectly today before reversing – on what else, news of being ‘far […]
FED has been buying a large share of TIPS recently – approaching 20% of the market this year. So at the same time they are talking up inflation they are artificially driving up inflation expectations. That should obviously have some inflationary impact on the TIPs premia, hence an artificial boost of the apparent breakevens. Even […]
Elections are uncertain. Volatility not so much. We are 29 trading days from the election. Historical pattern is for a lower SPX and stronger USD: As my recent client posts and recent calls in my trading room point out, I have been fully expecting a higher US Dollar and weakness in Tech. We’ve had substantial […]
After the best August in 36 years, the Nasdaq lost 10% in 3 days – the fastest drop ever. My last client post intonated as such: Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse 2020 so far (@ukarlewitz) Fastest bear market Highest % down days Fastest bull market Shortest bear market Highest % up days […]
Back on August 18th, I alerted clients that a “Volatility Impulse” was getting closer as a suggestion to really reflect on trend/swing longs and think seriously about tightening stops. Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer I wanted to follow up today as we have had many Macro news events that did in fact […]
I have a philosophy on trouble. Don’t feed it, and maybe it will go away. –Frank Sinatra Let’s face it, this market party is getting really wild and for those who don’t want trouble, it’s a good time to leave. I know not what will happen next, but I am envisioning some type of ‘distrubance’ […]
You want to know when I think Yields really get moving higher? After Bonds reverse of course… Inflation absolutely looks poised for higher, in time, which would support my yield pop thesis as well: Same TIP:TLT ratio from a slightly different perspective, but still bullish next few months, especially as Fed likely does not step […]
@LukeGromen @SehrLangsam2 @RaisingTheBAR47 @The92ers @Stimpyz1 @DiMartinoBooth @rubecube12 @acosgrove003 @MarketInterest @Alex__Salomon @HammerstoneMar3 @jam_croissant @DIGITIMES @tr8derz @HayekAndKeynes @kevinmuir @Barton_options Without significant growth surprises, it will be hard to move excess demand for safe asset treasuries (from pensions in particular) and from excess liquidity in financial system. Or we could get big growth in:
* sticky jobs
* sticky fiscal
* sticky rate hikes
* sticky inflation
But not until after Congress and Fed officials have positioned their bets in the stock market.
The cost of the Build Back Better Agenda — in terms of adding to the deficit — is zero.
It’s paid for because big corporations and the very wealthy will start paying their fair share.
@SamanthaLaDuc “Build Back Better” would poetically apply to the Federal Reserve as well. 🥸
