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Reopening Rotation Rally Risks

Reopening Rotation Rally Risks

by | Nov 17, 2020

A Reopening Rotation Rally is underway since last Monday when Pfizer announced a promising vaccine candidate which sent value stocks – energy, emerging markets, banks, and many small caps and oversold economically-sensitive plays – into FOMO chases while...
Europe Is Leading The Rotation Party, So Far

Europe Is Leading The Rotation Party, So Far

by | Nov 17, 2020

Europe is leading the rotation party on many accounts. Here’s a chart courtesy @TheMarketEar: Euro STOXX 50 relative to S&P 500 (blue, lhs) shows Europe is leading SPY. Also MSCI Europe Value vs Growth (grey, rhs) shows Value leads. Just so happens the #1...
Fading Any Move

Fading Any Move

by | Nov 2, 2020

Judging from today’s action – tech lower, reflation trades higher – market seems to be pricing in a Biden win with Blue Wave Congress. The new TINA? This is at the same time HYG sees its worst week of outflows last week since Feb and SPX futures are most long in two years at same […]

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Rally Brought To You By VIX Expecting A ‘Blue Wave’ Election Sweep

Rally Brought To You By VIX Expecting A ‘Blue Wave’ Election Sweep

by | Oct 13, 2020

The Biden Bid turned into the expectation of bigger and better Fiscal Stimulus. As a result, election premium collapsed last week into Monday (see blue line) setting free the market bulls: Suddenly, sentiment has shifted for a ‘Blue Wave’ election sweep, and with it, the BidenBid continues to push VIX down and USDCNH down (Yuan […]

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Stimulus Disappointment: Preparing For A Turn

Stimulus Disappointment: Preparing For A Turn

by | Sep 30, 2020

Month-end mark-up. I get it, but what happens when the month is over? OK, so today I expected futures to follow through – to the downside. It didn’t happen. However, on the upside, the market tagged my $3393.52 SPX WEEKLY resistance price target perfectly today before reversing – on what else, news of being ‘far […]

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TIPs Are Rigged; Watch Gold For Inflation/Deflation Tell

TIPs Are Rigged; Watch Gold For Inflation/Deflation Tell

by | Sep 29, 2020

FED has been buying a large share of TIPS recently – approaching 20% of the market this year. So at the same time they are talking up inflation they are artificially driving up inflation expectations. That should obviously have some inflationary impact on the TIPs premia, hence an artificial boost of the apparent breakevens. Even […]

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Uncertainty Rises with Volatility into October

Uncertainty Rises with Volatility into October

by | Sep 22, 2020

Elections are uncertain. Volatility not so much. We are 29 trading days from the election. Historical pattern is for a lower SPX and stronger USD: As my recent client posts and recent calls in my trading room point out, I have been fully expecting a higher US Dollar and weakness in Tech. We’ve had substantial […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Top of the Mountain

Intermarket Chart Attack: Top of the Mountain

by | Sep 11, 2020

After the best August in 36 years, the Nasdaq lost 10% in 3 days – the fastest drop ever. My last client post intonated as such: Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse 2020 so far (@ukarlewitz) Fastest bear market Highest % down days Fastest bull market Shortest bear market Highest % up days […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse

Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse

by | Aug 28, 2020

Back on August 18th, I alerted clients that a “Volatility Impulse” was getting closer as a suggestion to really reflect on trend/swing longs and think seriously about tightening stops. Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer I wanted to follow up today as we have had many Macro news events that did in fact […]

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EDGE Trade: Rate Spike, Bonds and Gold

EDGE Trade: Rate Spike, Bonds and Gold

by | Aug 27, 2020

My client letter Aug 18th: A higher USD would likely time with a needed Tech pause, or pullback, depending on the rate of change. One key theme I have had for weeks is a Rate Spike. It is playing out but the 10-yr yield chart needs to pullback gently and shallow to...
EDGE Trade Idea: Lumber and RFP

EDGE Trade Idea: Lumber and RFP

by | Aug 25, 2020

Intraday Call to Protect Lumber Profits and/or Short   The above prices are from Monday August 24th closing prices of Lumber – with high of $859.95 – and two popular ETFs WOOD and CUT. I bring this up as I suggested Monday in my live trading room that I believed it was time to tightly […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer

Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer

by | Aug 18, 2020

I have a philosophy on trouble.  Don’t feed it, and maybe it will go away. –Frank Sinatra Let’s face it, this market party is getting really wild and for those who don’t want trouble, it’s a good time to leave. I know not what will happen next, but I am envisioning some type of ‘distrubance’ […]

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Gold, Silver and Miners Due A Rest

Gold, Silver and Miners Due A Rest

by | Aug 8, 2020

Going into July, I wrote clients that I was bearish USD, bullish the market and bullish Precious Metals – specifically Gold with Silver and Miners (but also Palladium and Platinum as discussed regularly in my live trading room). Here’s how that market timing call came...