SPAC Attack: A Very Special Macro-to-Micro Power Hour Guest Captain Interview
Introductions: A client asked me to do a Guest Captain Macro-to-Micro Power Hour on SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), so I invited my go-to SPAC expert @sandiegosam to discuss them. Craig introduced me to George Kaufman who has the institutional...
Gold, Silver, Miner Short Update
In follow up to… August 8th, 2020: Gold, Silver and Miners Due A Rest – where I top-ticked Gold’s fall… …to Nov 16th, 2020: Gold Lacks A Short-Term Catalyst – where I recommended pressing short the Gold complex… Here’s why I continue to be bearish Gold and related precious metals like Silver and Miners as recommended […]
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Outliers Revert and These Are Outlier Charts
I follow a very articulate bear who is under-the-radar in large part because he is anonymous. Some, like Harry Dent, have been loud bears forever, and @SuburbanDrone may also have been a bear forever, but I have only found him recently when we engaged on twitter a few months ago. I do not know what […]
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Reopening Rotation Rally Risks
A Reopening Rotation Rally is underway since last Monday when Pfizer announced a promising vaccine candidate which sent value stocks – energy, emerging markets, banks, and many small caps and oversold economically-sensitive plays – into FOMO chases while...
Gold Lacks A Short-Term Catalyst
My thesis for my recommended Gold short Aug 8th was as follows: If current and future QE turns into ‘spending QE’ (as opposed to mere Asset Swap QE), economy will feel higher inflation expectations with higher yields. Gold will suffer. Fast forward to today’s Moderna’s vaccine trial announcement following Pfizer’s last Monday: Perception of “cure” […]
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Bull Stampede Expected: To All Time Highs Or Over A Cliff?
Last week was the biggest down week since March… and yet, S&P futures positioning reached a two year high. So many positioning long into the election. Even Friday’s call buying near end-of-day helped foretell the gap up this morning… and yet, I still contend this market is not safe. Before this latest pullback, clients had […]
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VIX Flashes Warning for Credit and Equities
Last Week – Speculators Unwind Big Nasdaq Short in Futures. The increase was the second biggest on record in data going back to 1999. Upon seeing this I then wondered – and expressed as such in my trading room – when do these net short non-commercial positions on $VIX futures unwind too? Added to the growing […]
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The Biden Bid Meets Value Rotation
Value or Value Trap? Of the major indices, the SmallCap Russell 2000 index was the top performer this week – in large part as energy and financials benefited the most from a spike in oil prices and Treasury yields. Financials are the 2nd worst performing sector...
Election Risks and Opportunities
Trump has Covid. Nobody knows what will happen – to the Trump’s or to the election. FinTwit is aflutter with conspiracy theories! I have mine. None of them matter. I don’t even have to write about the legal and political implications, the “what if...
Update to 2nd Half Fave Trend Set-Ups – 3rd Qtr 2020 Review
Back on July 3rd, I posted for clients my: Second Half Market Thoughts – Fave Trend Set-Ups. Here is an update on how all those stock picks did in Q3 2020. Second Half Market Thoughts By my estimation, and as I’ve warned in my live trading room past month+,...
Uncertainty Rises with Volatility into October
Elections are uncertain. Volatility not so much. We are 29 trading days from the election. Historical pattern is for a lower SPX and stronger USD: As my recent client posts and recent calls in my trading room point out, I have been fully expecting a higher US Dollar and weakness in Tech. We’ve had substantial […]
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Intermarket Chart Attack: Top of the Mountain
After the best August in 36 years, the Nasdaq lost 10% in 3 days – the fastest drop ever. My last client post intonated as such: Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse 2020 so far (@ukarlewitz) Fastest bear market Highest % down days Fastest bull market Shortest bear market Highest % up days […]
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Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse
Back on August 18th, I alerted clients that a “Volatility Impulse” was getting closer as a suggestion to really reflect on trend/swing longs and think seriously about tightening stops. Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer I wanted to follow up today as we have had many Macro news events that did in fact […]
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New Fed Inflation Mandates, Debt Monetization, Yield Curve Control and Gold
New Fed Inflation Mandates This, just in: Fed Seen Holding Rates at Zero for Five Years in New Policy Fed looks likely to keep short-term interest rates near zero for five years or possibly more Fed expected to tolerate faster inflation, lower unemployment Fed is expected to seek an inflation rate that roughly averages 2% […]
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Tuesday Macro-To-Micro Power Hour : STAGFLATION
Join Jonathan @voliswell of @vigtecofficial to discuss
commodities, ETF risks + the ‘only’ 2 strategies moving markets: long vol and short vol. Plus a follow up to last week's SPAC attack. Don't miss it!
https://t.co/qDTKgpV039
Thank you
@StockCharts @StockChartsTV @DKellerCMT @GraysonRoze
for the invite to share my 2021 “Predictions”!
My 2021 “Look Ahead” for StockChartsTV
CHARTING FORWARD 2021
https://t.co/lbgLpTOpoX