Color Me Skeptical Toward the end of my live trading room Friday (recording is posted by 1ET each day under the access link), I kinda went ‘off’ on how hard this stimulus Disaster Relief bill is to execute – for small businesses, for the mortgage industry, for consumers… On one hand, it looks a little […]
What do you think of the actions the Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken? I would categorize what the Fed has done to this point as necessary but not adequate. As an example, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility buys A1/P1 commercial paper. There’s about $450 billion of A1/P1 commercial paper and about $500 billion of A2/P2 […]
Steven Van Metre is a CFP out of Bakersfield, CA with a weekly economic update that helps explain in layman’s terms the World Dollar Liquidity Shortage. I have reproduced, in part, his recent client post as a way to detail the current and projected future path of Fed treasury purchases to try and break the […]
Tony Greer of TG Macro pens a daily newsletter and this one caught my attention. With his permission I am sharing it with my clients for you know I am very much inclined to buy the Oil-Value-Reflation trade (as I have written about for weeks), but as discussed in my live trading room, I have […]
Gold and SPX The following chart is a graphical representation of a tug-of-war between SPX and Gold – risk-on and risk-off. As SPX had fallen last week, Gold hadn’t moved in price and yet this ratio had moved higher – off the green bottom trend-line. This week the ratio moved back to the bottom of […]
Macro Matters Right now, actually, Macro doesn’t really matter. Just price. But I will lead with this thought as Macro WILL matter again. US PEG Ratio – Price/Earning divided by Growth – is at all time high as hit to economic growth from CoronaVirus is just starting. Bidding up stocks on a CoronaVirus rally is […]
Market Thoughts Before the WHO declared China ‘not in a pandemic’ today OR supply manager surveys on manufacturing (released this morning) signaled a classic restocking boom, I made the call to clients in my last 4 posts since Friday, that the epidemic interrupted AND would ignite reflation trades. With that, the market is gaping up […]
I have recently presented my case that central bank liquidity infusions to stem the economic damage from CoronaVirus could ignite inflation. If so, value stocks would roar back, since so many are tied to the Energy complex. And then a curious thing happened today: both Value (VALU) and Momentum (MTUM) were green in equal amounts […]
Getting Sicker The world is freaking out over CoronaVirus – inside Wuhan, China especailly. but also in every corner of the world where access to social media is easy to find both latest information and misinformation. On my twitter feed, I was sent videos that have gone viral: Chinese citizens smashing through barricades to escape […]
Will Fear Over Slowing Growth and CoronaVirus Reverse? Yields have been falling, reflecting concerns about global growth, and also the dramatic change of direction by central banks, which was itself largely driven by fears for growth. The 10-year Treasury yield is now almost a full percentage point lower than it was two years ago, and […]
This post is in follow up to a client post I published early November (5th) on the bullish picture for both Palladium and Platinum. Both have advanced since, but Palladium has exploded higher: From my post – Fishing Idea: Platinum and Palladium – my suggestion was based on both technical, intermarket and fundamental analysis. Here is […]
Transports relative to the S&P have been in the doldrums for all of 2019. The best I’ve been able to do is time a bounce when my Intermarket analysis ratio works signals a bounce off oversold levels. Right now, it is intonating another attempt (see yellow arrows). FDX May Carry The Load FDX is one […]
