Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 17-21: Wednesday

Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 17-21: Wednesday

Market Thoughts Investors are selling off the Yen on horrific economic data and the result is a SPY QQQ melt-up, risk-on market. It most likely stops when the Yen selling stops! This is a 3-standard deviation move so it’s a Big Deal that looks risk off but it’s actually JUST the opposite!  Soon ?  Higher […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: While Waiting For A Rug Pull

Intermarket Chart Attack: While Waiting For A Rug Pull

While waiting for a rug pull (next 30 days I suspect), here are the strongest looking charts – both Intermarket and Sector. McClellan Summation is still pointing upwards with MACD now cooperating. This is bullish SPY until it reverses. Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index is also pointing upwards, although RSI is strongly overbought. This is still […]

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Anatomy of a Trade: Yen Short (FXY GLD GDX TLT)

Anatomy of a Trade: Yen Short (FXY GLD GDX TLT)

Much attention of late has been focused, with good reason, on rising yields, falling bond prices and the collapse in the Japanese Yen and Gold. So many assets are correlated that as a strategic technical analyst I look for macro themes to show themselves in...
S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946

S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946

Higher Rates Can Be Bullish Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market, but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a blip on a chart). From a...
Bond Weary

Bond Weary

S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946 Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market–but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a...
Captain Calls: Buffett, Rich, Pring

Captain Calls: Buffett, Rich, Pring

There are lots of ideas out there on what to trade. The trick is synthesizing news-you-can use from the noise. Choosing ideas from veterans doesn’t make it a sure thing. But listening to ol’ timers…well, there is so much to be learned from...
October Macro View Review: Did I Say That?

October Macro View Review: Did I Say That?

Every month I write a swing trading newsletter for those who can’t join me in my LIVE Fishing Daily Trading Room but want my macro take on the month ahead, or just my trade ideas they can set and forget. The daily room is for active traders where we mostly chase...
Pre-Election Results: Oversold Support But Not Really

Pre-Election Results: Oversold Support But Not Really

The entire world awaits the results of the U.S. Presidential Election. Unprecedented angst and uncertainty. And risk. As of Nov 5th, SPX was pricing in a 68% chance for a 33 point move by Nov 9th, the day after the election. That’s a ~$66 expected move in either...