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Perfect Storm: CoronaVirus and Market Risks

Perfect Storm: CoronaVirus and Market Risks

Perfect Storm I closed my trading room at noon and went in search of Intel that could help me form a view on headline risk versus market risk. I found a credible source I believe on the headline risk of CoronaVirus and wanted to share that with you as well as the Market Risks I […]

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All Alone With My Higher Yield Thesis

All Alone With My Higher Yield Thesis

My 2020 Treasury Yield Expectation See yellow arrows (green arrows are when Powell came on board and Fed began hiking): By the way, the above is most definitely NOT consensus! Neither is this chart crime: I see Value reversing higher and Growth/Momentum plays reversing lower into 2020. This happens when rates turn higher and vice […]

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Gone Fishing Newsletter: US Dollar Edition

Gone Fishing Newsletter: US Dollar Edition

My Bet: US Dollar heads higher and here are some general Macro reasons why to support my chart read: Whether as risk off trade or bet on best global market (dubbed the “Smile Trade”), the USD typically outperforms. USDCNH reversal (as discussed in trading room past week and here could continue to put a bid […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: While Waiting For A Rug Pull

Intermarket Chart Attack: While Waiting For A Rug Pull

While waiting for a rug pull (next 30 days I suspect), here are the strongest looking charts – both Intermarket and Sector. McClellan Summation is still pointing upwards with MACD now cooperating. This is bullish SPY until it reverses. Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index is also pointing upwards, although RSI is strongly overbought. This is still […]

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Fishing Plan “Cheat-sheet”: January Effect Kicked In

Fishing Plan “Cheat-sheet”: January Effect Kicked In

Guess what? The “January Effect” kicked in! As discussed and posted before the holidays, I was expecting the “January Effect” to kick in and bid up those extremely oversold “value” plays wherein all of a sudden they get bought up again. Well, my two favorite themes – IPOs and Pot Stocks – did just that […]

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Fishing Idea: Platinum Has A Bright Outlook

Fishing Idea: Platinum Has A Bright Outlook

This post is in follow up to a client post I published early November (5th) on the bullish picture for both Palladium and Platinum. Both have advanced since, but Palladium has exploded higher: From my post – Fishing Idea: Platinum and Palladium – my suggestion was based on both technical, intermarket and fundamental analysis. Here is […]

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Market Thoughts: Transports as Next Value Play

Market Thoughts: Transports as Next Value Play

Transports relative to the S&P have been in the doldrums for all of 2019. The best I’ve been able to do is time a bounce when my Intermarket analysis ratio works signals a bounce off oversold levels. Right now, it is intonating another attempt (see yellow arrows). FDX May Carry The Load FDX is one […]

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Weed Stocks Could Grow in January

Weed Stocks Could Grow in January

Cannabis Tax Loss Selling Tax loss selling should kick into high gear over the next couple of weeks as investors seek to offset capital gains before year’s end. For those wanting to play the “January Effect”, public marijuana stocks is one beat up area to look. That’s the widely researched market anomaly that finds depressed […]

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Guest Captain Commentary: 2020 Private Equity Outlook

Guest Captain Commentary: 2020 Private Equity Outlook

2020 PRIVATE EQUITY OUTLOOK: Pitchbook’s private equity analysts just released their 2020 predictions and analysis for the PE industry. Here are several that caught my eye: — We will see another acquisition of a major alternative asset manager: “On the heels of Brookfield’s $4.7 billion acquisition of credit-focused Oaktree and SoftBank’s $3.3 billion purchase of long-time […]

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Fishing Idea: AMLP as Investment Theme

Fishing Idea: AMLP as Investment Theme

I have an interest in “bottom fishing” in the Oil + Gas patch. Specifically you will see I have opened up positions in XOP and OIH this morning. I already have SLB and ECA that I opened last month – early but with same idea – price is basing...
Intermarket Chart Attack: Where’s The Panic Buying?

Intermarket Chart Attack: Where’s The Panic Buying?

Macro Market Thoughts I was pulling together my weekly review of intermarket charts for you when it occurred to me that I should be seeing a stronger bullish set up given the liquidity going into the markets the world over: Japan, China, Eurozone, United States. ALL...
Fishing Idea: Kamada (KMDA)

Fishing Idea: Kamada (KMDA)

The following is a recent (from June) Investment idea from a friend – a 35 private investor from Isreal and former Wall Street hedge fund manager. His name is Omero and he is more than successful. Kamada is his largest position in his portfolio. Omero is also the one who recommended CVET recently which I […]

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Gone Fishing Newsletter: Bond-Equity Risk Everywhere

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Bond-Equity Risk Everywhere

Top Risks I See Right Now 1. China retaliation over US support for Hong Kong. US sanctions and trade war escalation with China/Hong Kong US Senate passed Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act by unanimous consent. House passed it by unanimous consent earlier, so...