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Fed Cuts  Trade Wars

Fed Cuts <> Trade Wars

In lieu of a big market sell off on global economic growth slowdown and trade jitters, the market seems to still be expecting the “Art of the Deal” from Trump on China and/or the Fed cutting 75 basis points worth this year – which ever comes first. The S&P500 is up 5% after falling 6.6% […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Summer Before The Fall

Intermarket Chart Attack: Summer Before The Fall

No macro here, just intermarket analysis, and that means I make predictions based on pattern recognition without any macro, fundamental, sentiment narrative to muck it up. But, I also do this granular intermarket review to see if my technical analysis aligns with my macro narrative. Warning: Some of this is geeky.  They typically don’t kiss, […]

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US-China Trade War’s Next Target: Capital Markets

US-China Trade War’s Next Target: Capital Markets

From Macro to Micro back to Macro – this is how this post evolved – and so I decided to keep this flow as I think it is a good analog for how traders and investors are watching the Trade Wars from the sidelines, trading any news or edge we find along the way, but […]

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Supply Disruption Meet Demand Destruction in Oil

Supply Disruption Meet Demand Destruction in Oil

EIA data Wednesday showed total inventory stocks at the highest since mid-2017, a sign that production is outstripping demand. But that was before the tankers in the Straight of Hormuz were torpedoed Thursday and oil jumped 4% on fear of supply distribution being disrupted by Middle East conflict. Although OIi may be temporarily re-priced in […]

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The Week Ahead: June 10-14

The Week Ahead: June 10-14

Market Thoughts No more Mexican Standoff sends stocks briskly higher last week. And this despite a MarkIt Manufacturing PMI barely above 50, the 37M low in ISM, the Global Biz confidence breaking 50, yield curve concerns and a very weak NFP. Bad news is now good news,...