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The ‘Numbing Effect’ of Uncertainty

The ‘Numbing Effect’ of Uncertainty

Stock market likes Certainty. That wouldn’t be this market. And this despite Fed announcing “Don’t call it QE” funding to Repo markets and Trump tweeting that a trade deal is coming. Indices are still hanging out not breaking out. While Economic Uncertainty is on the rise: Top of the Uncertainty Pyramid would clearly be the […]

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What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: October 21 – 25

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: October 21 – 25

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar   Monday October 21st Economic Calendar: No Major Economic Data Released Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: CBU, HAL, LII, ONB, PETS, SMBK Earnings After the Close: ACC, AMTD, BXS, CDNS, ESFC, FBK, HLX, HMST, HOPE, HSTM, HXL, SFBS, TACO, WASH, WSFS, ZION Other Key Events: None Expected IPOs for […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Bulls Are Trying To Run

Intermarket Chart Attack: Bulls Are Trying To Run

My thinking October 2nd was this: I believe we now chop and drop into the 9th and then move higher after that into FOMC on the 31st. Market Thoughts: When Is It Safe To Buy?  As we move closer toward the FOMC meeting October 31st, I am not sure what more the Fed has in […]

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What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: October 14 – 18

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: October 14 – 18

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar   Monday October 14th Economic Calendar: No major economic data   Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: None Earnings After the Close: None   Other Key Events: Global Gaming Expo for 2019, 10/14-10/17, in Las Vegas   Expected IPOs...
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: October 7 – 11

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: October 7 – 11

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar   Monday October 7th Economic Calendar: 3:00 PM EST               Consumer Credit for August…   Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: None Earnings After the Close: None   Other Key Events: UBS Utilities Conference, 10/7-10/8 in...
Intermarket Chart Attack: New Month New Risk

Intermarket Chart Attack: New Month New Risk

Here come the geeky charts. But first, a cute review on why and how I use Intermarket Analysis to time actionable trade ideas for clients: Small caps *may* surprise to the upside: Then I shorted IWM and showed clients why: And, Here We Are:   Here is a recent update to my Short SPY Call […]

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On China: Better To Be Safe Than Sorry

On China: Better To Be Safe Than Sorry

U.S.-China Trade War’s Next Target: Capital Markets To Clients, and later in a Seeking Alpha article on June 19th of this year, I alerted to the threat of US blocking US Investments in China… U.S.-China Trade War’s Next Target: Capital Markets Then...
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: September 30 – October 4

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: September 30 – October 4

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar   Monday September 30th Economic Calendar: 9:45 AM EST               Chicago PMI for September 10:30 AM EST             Dallas Fed Manufacturing for September Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: CALM, THO Earnings After the...
Indices Are Hanging Out Not Breaking Out

Indices Are Hanging Out Not Breaking Out

My theme last week in my live trading room was simply: “Indices are hanging out, not breaking out.” And yet, under the seemingly calm of market indices, there has been large waves of distribution selling taking place in Momo land: ROKU and NFLX in dramatic...
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: September 23 – 27

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: September 23 – 27

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar   Monday September 23rd Economic Calendar: 8:30 AM EST               Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for Aug 9:45 AM EST               Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Sept-P 9:45 AM EST               Markit US Services PMI, Sept-P 9:50 AM...
Guest Captain Posts: Repo Madness and a P.S.A.

Guest Captain Posts: Repo Madness and a P.S.A.

Consider this a Public Service Announcement Read everything Jess of Monday Morning Macro has written if you are serious about protecting your money.  She is “In The Zone” with this whole Repo Madness: ♥ Far Too Little, Far Too Late ♣ Wait, what? You...
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: September 16 – 20

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: September 16 – 20

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar   Monday September 16th Economic Calendar: 8:30 AM EST               Empire Manufacturing for Sept Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: None Earnings After the Close: CSBR Other Key Events: FDA Joint Regulatory Conference,...
Market Thoughts: Historic Market Timing Calls

Market Thoughts: Historic Market Timing Calls

My job is to identify Inflection Points, and then to ‘operationalize’ them so as to call out actionable trades for clients. Last week was an exceptional week of Market Timing Calls – from my Bond Short Call the day before a 3-sigma standard deviation...
Fishing Ideas: Restaurants, Bonds, Gold and Volatility

Fishing Ideas: Restaurants, Bonds, Gold and Volatility

Sector Review: Restaurants Here’s a Sector Trade Idea with a brief review of Macro trades still in progress. McDonald’s below $215 is a swing short for me. See Yum… the bounce this week did not hold. Other high-flying Restaurants that are rolling over (closing <10WK) with MCD and YUM are QSR WEN WING CMG. Other than […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Reversion And Reflation In Play

Intermarket Chart Attack: Reversion And Reflation In Play

This is a mid-week update to my weekend client Newsletter: Intermarket Chart Attack: Reversion To The Mean but Conviction None. Nothing has changed in regards to my Main Themes: Reversion to the Mean – as posted for Indices but Conviction None. Rates – as posted in Market Thoughts: Spying a Bond Pullback Metals – as posted […]

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