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Reopening Rotation Rally Risks

Reopening Rotation Rally Risks

A Reopening Rotation Rally is underway since last Monday when Pfizer announced a promising vaccine candidate which sent value stocks – energy, emerging markets, banks, and many small caps and oversold economically-sensitive plays – into FOMO chases while...
Gold Lacks A Short-Term Catalyst

Gold Lacks A Short-Term Catalyst

My thesis for my recommended Gold short Aug 8th was as follows: If current and future QE turns into ‘spending QE’ (as opposed to mere Asset Swap QE), economy will feel higher inflation expectations with higher yields. Gold will suffer. Fast forward to today’s Moderna’s vaccine trial announcement following Pfizer’s last Monday: Perception of “cure” […]

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Bull Stampede Expected: To All Time Highs Or Over A Cliff?

Bull Stampede Expected: To All Time Highs Or Over A Cliff?

Last week was the biggest down week since March… and yet, S&P futures positioning reached a two year high. So many positioning long into the election. Even Friday’s call buying near end-of-day helped foretell the gap up this morning… and yet, I still contend this market is not safe. Before this latest pullback, clients had […]

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VIX Flashes Warning for Credit and Equities

VIX Flashes Warning for Credit and Equities

Last Week – Speculators Unwind Big Nasdaq Short in Futures. The increase was the second biggest on record in data going back to 1999.  Upon seeing this I then wondered – and expressed as such in my trading room  – when do these net short non-commercial positions on $VIX futures unwind too?  Added to the growing […]

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The Biden Bid Meets Value Rotation

The Biden Bid Meets Value Rotation

Value or Value Trap? Of the major indices, the SmallCap Russell 2000 index was the top performer this week – in large part as energy and financials benefited the most from a spike in oil prices and Treasury yields. Financials are the 2nd worst performing sector...
Election Risks and Opportunities

Election Risks and Opportunities

Trump has Covid. Nobody knows what will happen – to the Trump’s or to the election. FinTwit is aflutter with conspiracy theories! I have mine. None of them matter. I don’t even have to write about the legal and political implications, the “what if...
Uncertainty Rises with Volatility into October

Uncertainty Rises with Volatility into October

Elections are uncertain. Volatility not so much. We are 29 trading days from the election. Historical pattern is for a lower SPX and stronger USD: As my recent client posts and recent calls in my trading room point out, I have been fully expecting a higher US Dollar and weakness in Tech. We’ve had substantial […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Top of the Mountain

Intermarket Chart Attack: Top of the Mountain

After the best August in 36 years, the Nasdaq lost 10% in 3 days – the fastest drop ever. My last client post intonated as such: Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse 2020 so far (@ukarlewitz) Fastest bear market Highest % down days Fastest bull market Shortest bear market Highest % up days […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse

Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse

Back on August 18th, I alerted clients that a “Volatility Impulse” was getting closer as a suggestion to really reflect on trend/swing longs and think seriously about tightening stops. Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer I wanted to follow up today as we have had many Macro news events that did in fact […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer

Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer

I have a philosophy on trouble.  Don’t feed it, and maybe it will go away. –Frank Sinatra Let’s face it, this market party is getting really wild and for those who don’t want trouble, it’s a good time to leave. I know not what will happen next, but I am envisioning some type of ‘distrubance’ […]

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Update on Dollar and Gold Market Timing Calls

Update on Dollar and Gold Market Timing Calls

Going into July, I was bearish USD, bullish market and bullish Precious Metals – specifically Gold with Silver and Miners (but also Palladium and Platinum as discussed regularly in my live trading room). Here’s how that market timing call came to be from...
Gone Fishing Newsletter: Gaming COVID

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Gaming COVID

The Story of 2020 On Jan 22nd I wrote, “CoronaVirus will be the story of 2020″ and then proceeded to write, tweet, talk about Coronavirus heavily in January, February and March. To be honest, I obsessed about it, warned about it, and from this was able to...