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Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer

Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer

I have a philosophy on trouble.  Don’t feed it, and maybe it will go away. –Frank Sinatra Let’s face it, this market party is getting really wild and for those who don’t want trouble, it’s a good time to leave. I know not what will happen next, but I am envisioning some type of ‘distrubance’ […]

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Update on Dollar and Gold Market Timing Calls

Update on Dollar and Gold Market Timing Calls

Going into July, I was bearish USD, bullish market and bullish Precious Metals – specifically Gold with Silver and Miners (but also Palladium and Platinum as discussed regularly in my live trading room). Here’s how that market timing call came to be from...
Gone Fishing Newsletter: Gaming COVID

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Gaming COVID

The Story of 2020 On Jan 22nd I wrote, “CoronaVirus will be the story of 2020″ and then proceeded to write, tweet, talk about Coronavirus heavily in January, February and March. To be honest, I obsessed about it, warned about it, and from this was able to...
Intermarket Chart Attack: Bears Need FAANMG Sellers

Intermarket Chart Attack: Bears Need FAANMG Sellers

This weekend I posted my market analysis from a Macro-to-Technical perspective – Intermarket Chart Attack: Looking Forward.  I led with the concept of “China Outperforming” US. Given the recent melt-up in China stocks, I wanted to drill down a bit further and highlight a few more themes, especially on FAANMG, Gold and the USD. Market […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Looking Forward

Intermarket Chart Attack: Looking Forward

Sector Rotation in 1H 2020 When you look at what the average stock for the first part of 2020 performed, you can see that its performance more closely resembles the economy, which is nowhere close to recovering from the damaging effects of a near-national COVID...
Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups

Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups

Second Half Market Thoughts By my estimation, and as I’ve warned in my live trading room past month+, Summer Trading will likely include wide swings – in both directions, between SPX $2950-$3250. More than likely, Treasury will keep cash handy to use to...
Risk Parity, Market Gamma & Option-Driven Equity Flows

Risk Parity, Market Gamma & Option-Driven Equity Flows

Recall the 1% Risk Parity Trade of March? I wrote about it here: Gone Fishing Newsletter: The 1% Outlier Event That Tanked Equities 30% – Mar 24, 2020 Back on March 18th, the S&P 500 was down 16% in 7 days while 10-year yields more than doubled. Some risk...
Intermarket Chart Attack: Historic Momentum Factor Rotation Into Value

Intermarket Chart Attack: Historic Momentum Factor Rotation Into Value

Recent Client Newsletters on the Value Rotation Theme: JUNE 1: Intermarket Chart Attack: Value Takes Flight MAY 30: ForexAnalytix Interview: The Case For Value Over Momentum MAY 26: Fishing Plan for Week of May 26 -29: Violent Rotation APRIL 18: Intermarket Chart Attack: Rotation Into Value Set-Up Gluttony After a stunning market rally off the March […]

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Value Remains In Flight

Value Remains In Flight

Last Tuesday, I penned a post for clients entitled, Violent Rotation. It was to highlight a trading theme I spied for the coming week to support my market timing calls to trade long ‘value’ plays – those highly-shorted, ‘high risk, bad-balance...
Intermarket Chart Attack: Value Takes Flight

Intermarket Chart Attack: Value Takes Flight

Market Rallies Despite Riots Despite protests and riots in 50 US cities over the weekend, and escalating tensions between US and China over trade, territories and capital wars, the falling USD is helping equities stay bid. Further evidence to support buying can be found from reports of opened retail brokerage accounts past two months and […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Sell What In May?

Intermarket Chart Attack: Sell What In May?

Big Picture: We are still in a bear market. And as I suggested in late March, I see a multi-month process of digesting the out-sized downdraft in Feb/March, which includes both large rallies and failures. We have only seen the April bear market rally. But as we enter...
Gone Fishing Newsletter: Negative Interest Rates Are Negative

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Negative Interest Rates Are Negative

Buyer of Last Resort Fed meets and releases their FOMC minutes today. Some are expecting a negative interest rate announcement. I’m not, but I’m thinking about what it means when they do go negative. More likely, when they need to step in again to backstop falling equities, they will announce ‘yield curve control‘ to start. […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Rotation Into What?

Intermarket Chart Attack: Rotation Into What?

Inflation/Deflation This is one of my Intermarket Tells I spy for sector rotation: The Inflation/Deflation Ratio by Martin Pring To clarify: Deflation-sensitive stocks include industry groups such as banks, insurers utilities versus inflation-sensitive stocks of mainly mines and energy stocks. A rising ratio is inflationary and is typically conducive to buying metal and mining companies. […]

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The Control Loop of Gold, Dollar and Treasuries

The Control Loop of Gold, Dollar and Treasuries

Debt bubbles are deflationary – as presented in this recent client post: Guest Captain Commentary – Lacy Hunt. Policy response to try and mitigate a rising debt bubble is inflationary. The point of me framing this up front is to set up the applicable time-frame for trading and investment decisions: now versus sometime in the […]

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