Uncertainty Rises with Volatility into October
Elections are uncertain. Volatility not so much. We are 29 trading days from the election. Historical pattern is for a lower SPX and stronger USD: As my recent client posts and recent calls in my trading room point out, I have been fully expecting a higher US Dollar and weakness in Tech. We’ve had substantial […]
Intermarket Chart Attack: Top of the Mountain
After the best August in 36 years, the Nasdaq lost 10% in 3 days – the fastest drop ever. My last client post intonated as such: Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse 2020 so far (@ukarlewitz) Fastest bear market Highest % down days Fastest bull market Shortest bear market Highest % up days […]
Intermarket Chart Attack: Let’s Talk About That Volatility Impulse
Back on August 18th, I alerted clients that a “Volatility Impulse” was getting closer as a suggestion to really reflect on trend/swing longs and think seriously about tightening stops. Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer I wanted to follow up today as we have had many Macro news events that did in fact […]
New Fed Inflation Mandates, Debt Monetization, Yield Curve Control and Gold
New Fed Inflation Mandates This, just in: Fed Seen Holding Rates at Zero for Five Years in New Policy Fed looks likely to keep short-term interest rates near zero for five years or possibly more Fed expected to tolerate faster inflation, lower unemployment Fed is expected to seek an inflation rate that roughly averages 2% […]
Intermarket Chart Attack: Volatility Impulse Is Getting Closer
I have a philosophy on trouble. Don’t feed it, and maybe it will go away. –Frank Sinatra Let’s face it, this market party is getting really wild and for those who don’t want trouble, it’s a good time to leave. I know not what will happen next, but I am envisioning some type of ‘distrubance’ […]
Intermarket Chart Attack: Inflation Bet With Commodities – Early Innings
You want to know when I think Yields really get moving higher? After Bonds reverse of course… Inflation absolutely looks poised for higher, in time, which would support my yield pop thesis as well: Same TIP:TLT ratio from a slightly different perspective, but still bullish next few months, especially as Fed likely does not step […]
Update on Dollar and Gold Market Timing Calls
Going into July, I was bearish USD, bullish market and bullish Precious Metals – specifically Gold with Silver and Miners (but also Palladium and Platinum as discussed regularly in my live trading room). Here’s how that market timing call came to be from...Gone Fishing Newsletter: Gaming COVID
The Story of 2020 On Jan 22nd I wrote, “CoronaVirus will be the story of 2020″ and then proceeded to write, tweet, talk about Coronavirus heavily in January, February and March. To be honest, I obsessed about it, warned about it, and from this was able to...Intermarket Chart Attack: Bears Need FAANMG Sellers
This weekend I posted my market analysis from a Macro-to-Technical perspective – Intermarket Chart Attack: Looking Forward. I led with the concept of “China Outperforming” US. Given the recent melt-up in China stocks, I wanted to drill down a bit further and highlight a few more themes, especially on FAANMG, Gold and the USD. Market […]
Intermarket Chart Attack: Looking Forward
Sector Rotation in 1H 2020 When you look at what the average stock for the first part of 2020 performed, you can see that its performance more closely resembles the economy, which is nowhere close to recovering from the damaging effects of a near-national COVID...Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups
Second Half Market Thoughts By my estimation, and as I’ve warned in my live trading room past month+, Summer Trading will likely include wide swings – in both directions, between SPX $2950-$3250. More than likely, Treasury will keep cash handy to use to...Risk Parity, Market Gamma & Option-Driven Equity Flows
Recall the 1% Risk Parity Trade of March? I wrote about it here: Gone Fishing Newsletter: The 1% Outlier Event That Tanked Equities 30% – Mar 24, 2020 Back on March 18th, the S&P 500 was down 16% in 7 days while 10-year yields more than doubled. Some risk...Intermarket Chart Attack: Historic Momentum Factor Rotation Into Value
Recent Client Newsletters on the Value Rotation Theme: JUNE 1: Intermarket Chart Attack: Value Takes Flight MAY 30: ForexAnalytix Interview: The Case For Value Over Momentum MAY 26: Fishing Plan for Week of May 26 -29: Violent Rotation APRIL 18: Intermarket Chart Attack: Rotation Into Value Set-Up Gluttony After a stunning market rally off the March […]