The morning of the FOMC minutes last Wednesday the 19th, and before Powell’s press conference, MarketWatch published Samantha’s MarketWatch article wherein her thesis is not that the Fed will cut – that’s assumed – but that rate cuts will have diminishing returns on economic growth AND that rate cuts are not “greater than” Trade Wars in that the economic affects of easing will offset the immediate negative impact on business and consumption that occurs from tariffs.
Her thesis for the market to trade Sideways-To-Lower into 2020, is based on:
- The Diminishing Returns of Rate Cuts
- Rate Cuts Will Embolden Trump’s Trade Wars
- In Short, This is Not Your 1995 Rate Cut.