Market Catch June 19 – 23
Check out highlights from the week that have got us hooked, and what else is down the line!
Theme of the Week – A Waiting Game
While the stock market this week presented a lesson in patience, the silence following Prigozhin’s mutiny against Putin taunts that very patience. Stay strong your Market vigil…
Trade of the Week
$AMD’s performance this past week demonstrates a lesson in trading patience. Rithika and Archna’s analysis detailed $AMD’s gap-fill that has yet to mature, while also revealing the bullish channel taking shape due to large call volume.
Chart of the Week
Business-Politics Spotlight: Russia
It is likely no surprise that the political developments in Russia appear in this week’s Market Catch: news of Russia has dominated every news network as of late.
On Twitter, Samantha pointed out Dr. Pippa Malmgren’s Pen and Podcast blog, an excellent account of the Russian drama. Dr. Pippa contextualizes the Wagner Group’s coup (the retaliation of the Wagner Group, one of the world’s largest private armies, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin) as a plot to topple Putin’s control over Russia. The true internal conflict in Russia lies between organized crime (Wagner), the military, and the Intelligence community, and Prigozhin’s march on Moscow has brusquely uncovered the tensions between these parties. Putin has forced the Military to continue their ill-equipped siege on Ukraine, for which the Wagner has fronted a disproportionately large share of deaths. Putin’s image has been greatly weakened after he initially announced that “all those who prepared the rebellion will suffer inevitable punishment,” but then brokered a deal with the Wagner Group that allowed them to halt their coup without any charges pressed. Putin will now have to reckon with a poor reputation and a rocked sociopolitical scene as he prepares for re-election.
From a Macro standpoint, these political events have already left a mark. According to Bloomberg, the ruble has hit its weakest point in 15 months, dropping by almost 3% against the US dollar. This uprising may also impact the nuclear industry, which is heavily tied to Russia. Keep an eye out on $URA! Finally, economic forces surrounding Ukraine might be in flux as Ukraine is set to benefit from Russian internal conflict.
In Samantha’s words, “Peace is USD Bullish!“, and for Russia, recent events strike a starkly opposite chord.
Macro Roundup
Powell took to the stand in front of the House Financial Services Committee this past week, shedding insight on the Macro landscape to come. While insisting that there is a ‘long way to go’ in reducing inflation to the 2% goal, Powell did note that the pace of future hikes may slow. Even so, the projection of two additional rate hikes remains very reasonable.
Given the two rate hikes to come, Macro Advisor Craig noted that, “it is going to be even more difficult for funds from the RRP to shift into the TGA” as the TGA continues to refill. This situation leave us with two options: higher borrowing costs to get money out of RRP, or major bank/liquidity drains through the end of July.
Learn more from Craig on Twitter, @ces921.
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