The Perfect Storm for an Inflation Surge
December 10, 2016 Market Watch picked up and ran an opinion piece I had written on interest rates and the coming perfect storm for an inflation surge. I just remembered to post it! More to the point, it still applies ;). Summary: The 1946 analog of much-higher inflation (as long as wage growth keeps up) converging […]
Bond Weary
S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946 Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market–but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a blip on a chart). From a low of 2% to a high of […]
Rate Prognasticators are as popular as Pollsters
Polls and predictive models failed to predict Trump’s strength let alone his win. That’s nothing. Wall street analysts and economists have been getting the rate thing wrong for years, and not by a little. Bloomberg reported hardly anyone on Wall Street saw the recent rate run coming. None of the 65 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said […]
Update on India Short Trade: TTM, INDY
This was October 26th when news hit of the CEO being removed. My thesis was simple: Tata IS the Indian stock market, so where they go, the stock market will follow. Bold huh. A few days later a SIZE bearish option play hit and I knew I was in good company. By Nov 4th my […]
Captain Calls: Buffett, Rich, Pring
There are lots of ideas out there on what to trade. The trick is synthesizing news-you-can use from the noise. Choosing ideas from veterans doesn’t make it a sure thing. But listening to ol’ timers…well, there is so much to be learned from experience. And I love to learn which is why I scan and […]
October Macro View Review: Did I Say That?
Every month I write a swing trading newsletter for those who can’t join me in my LIVE Fishing Daily Trading Room but want my macro take on the month ahead, or just my trade ideas they can set and forget. The daily room is for active traders where we mostly chase momentum plays in the […]
Fishing Idea: Oil Refinery Stocks
Trump has vowed on Day One to cancel some restrictions on energy production, but we don’t quite know what that means yet. He has also said he would reignite (forgive the pun) the Keystone Pipeline. Not only is this contentious, but these policies could add oil supply to the current glut which in turn could […]
Election Results? #BTD or #NotDoneYet
An election–whether waiting on the results or dealing with the aftermath–can make anyone feel afloat in a paper boat on choppy water, small umbrella to protect from the swelling wave. A lot is at stake–both for our nation and for our market. I would not dare to predict the outcome of the hotly contested race […]