{"id":60177,"date":"2019-08-25T15:47:25","date_gmt":"2019-08-25T19:47:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/?p=60177"},"modified":"2019-10-21T00:51:36","modified_gmt":"2019-10-21T04:51:36","slug":"market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Thoughts: Out Of The Pool"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;\" class=\"sharethis-inline-share-buttons\" ><\/div><h2>Why Was I Short? What Did I See?<\/h2>\n<p>The following is a recap of my Intraday Trading off Headline-Risks Friday, along with some of my Intermarket Analysis leading up into the big sell-off that clients had in advance, plus an overview of my Macro Views that support more selling to come.<\/p>\n<p>First, here is a quick review of client posts with my transition into bearish positioning and volatility warnings. The most recent was sent out Tuesday August 20th wherein I showed why I predicted a potential drop and by how much:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/how-the-market-is-like-donkey-kong\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">How The Market Is Like Donkey Kong<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/intermarket-chart-attack-trading-trend-reversals\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Intermarket Chart Attack: Trading Trend Reversals<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/intermarket-chart-attack-some-things-are-really-broken\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Intermarket Chart Attack: Some\u00a0Things are Really Broken<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/gold-at-an-inflection-point\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Gold At An Inflection Point<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/intermarket-chart-attack-something-is-broken\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Intermarket Chart Attack: Something Is Broken<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I also posted publicly:<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s my <a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/market-thoughts-lets-talk-about-volatility\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">warning for a market rollover<\/a>: July 22nd.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em><strong>\u201cmy breadth indicators (this is but one) are indicating the roll-over is just starting. The indices just don\u2019t know it yet .\u201d\u00a0Samantha LaDuc<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"entry-title\">I updated with <a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/market-thoughts-we-had-the-rollover\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Market Thoughts: We Had The Rollover:<\/a> August 6th.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em><strong>&#8220;Big Volatility in Yield world gonna spill over to equities is my bet \u2026&#8221; Samantha LaDuc<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">Well the price action in SPY has been nothing short of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DRUpAipGu5w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Crazy Ivan like<\/a> &#8211; a theme I like to use whenever the chop is biding time until the drop &#8211; since Monday August 5th post FOMC and Trump&#8217;s displeasure with the FOMC when he was emboldened to escalate the trade war with China, <a href=\"http:\/\/watch.com\/story\/stock-market-will-be-sorely-disappointed-by-a-fed-rate-cut-2019-06-18\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as warned about June 19th for Marketwatch<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">After his announcement August 1st of more Trade Tariffs on China (effective September 1st), SPY tested<\/span><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\"> the 200D after hours on August 5th, and I have been warning that we would duplicate this tag of the 200D during regular market hours at a date in the not to distant future. Given Friday&#8217;s action, I&#8217;m fully expecting, and positioned, to expect it this week. If not, I will be caught off-sides. That&#8217;s the risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">But trading the past three weeks has been high-risk. It was hard to hold longs OR shorts given the gyrations from ~$2822<\/span><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\"> to $2943. From my convictions, I reduced longs considerably (as <a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/my-reallife-interview-day-trading-macro-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">discussed in a recent podcast<\/a>), where I recently discussed migrating from equal-weighting of longs and shorts to positioning over-weight with shorts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>It worked out Friday &#8211; see<a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/pnl-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> total account value for the month to date<\/a> &#8211; but I am heavily short now into Monday despite SPX closing\/bouncing on support of $2847 (thick orange line) and having dropped 100 points in 24 hours. Below I will attempt to demonstrate WHY but first let&#8217;s review Friday&#8217;s main events before we look at my Intermarket chart interpretations and Macro views.<\/p>\n<p id=\"mheTLEK\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1314\" height=\"970\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60239 \" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778.png 1314w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778-300x221.png 300w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778-768x567.png 768w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778-1024x756.png 1024w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778-1080x797.png 1080w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d62ba0bad778-510x376.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1314px) 100vw, 1314px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Friday Was &#8220;Eventful&#8221;<\/h2>\n<p>All eyes were focused on Powell&#8217;s speech to the Kansas City Fed&#8217;s annual symposium in Jackson Hole wherein he noted that events since the FOMC meeting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-08-23\/powell-says-economy-in-favorable-place-faces-significant-risks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">have been\u00a0<em>eventful<\/em><\/a>. But the trigger for the day did not come from Powell. His remarks were measured and dovish enough. The spark for the fire came from China and then Trump poured fuel on it.<\/p>\n<p>A reminder for clients and non-clients alike, follow <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SamanthaLaDuc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">my Twitter account<\/a> for my &#8216;small-bite&#8217; macro insights and inflection-point warnings. It is best to be in my Live Trading Room, as I don&#8217;t tweet intra-day&#8230;unless there is a real risk-on or risk-off event. My intention for doing so is two-fold: Public Service but also so I can share some of my insights real-time with followers in hopes they convert to becoming trading room\/trade alert\/newsletter clients. On Friday, I was especially on point and prescient:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>8:28AM &#8211; &#8220;China retaliation extends beyond Soybeans\/Ag products. It\u2019s now got its sights on US Energy market which is already fragile in credit land. <span class=\"r-18u37iz\">$HYG<\/span> <span class=\"r-18u37iz\">$XLE&#8221;<\/span><\/li>\n<li>8:33AM &#8211; (Based on RT: Due to time zone differences, China will be the first to impose tariffs on the US on Sept 1, at midnight Beijing time): &#8220;China will be first to impose tariffs? Baahaahaa <span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">Oh c\u2019mon, <strong><em>you KNOW Trump\u2019s ego in no way going to allow that! Look for tweet soon that he\u2019s moving up the Sept 1 tariff date! Brace Yourselves! <\/em><\/strong><\/span><strong><em><span class=\"r-18u37iz\">$VIX&#8221;<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>8:37AM &#8211; (Based on RT): New China tariff on U.S goods. <strong><em>This really tips the scale IMO to the negative side for risk assets<\/em><\/strong>. Not only does a full blown trade war slow consumption but it also raises inflation which potentially can handcuff the Fed from being aggressive on lowering rates. Stagflation.<\/li>\n<li>10:24AM &#8211; (Based on Powell referencing 1995 in his Jackson Hole speech.) &#8220;<span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">IF this is Powell&#8217;s rulebook &#8211; aka 1995 &#8211; but he doesn&#8217;t want to say that directly, <strong><em>the market *should* be screaming higher.<\/em> <\/strong>As IF China *knew* this was coming and announced their tariffs right before just to dampen the equities ramp. That was stealth, man. <\/span><span class=\"r-18u37iz\">#PissingContest&#8221;<\/span><\/li>\n<li>10:56AM &#8211; (Based on RT referencing trump\/mnuchin USD intervention.) &#8220;<span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">Lower rates make it *seem* tech likes Powell and Trump&#8217;s tweet of potential USD intervention WILL HAVE unintended consequences&#8230; <\/span><strong><em><span class=\"r-18u37iz\">$USD<\/span><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">\/JPY breaking down is not bullish as it can send the Yen into escape velocity mode.&#8221;<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>11:01AM &#8211;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">OUT OF THE POOL NOW!<\/p>\n<p>In a Mama voice<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24VIX&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$VIX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7pq8gJ3rYK\">https:\/\/t.co\/7pq8gJ3rYK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SamanthaLaDuc\/status\/1164915599354531840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 23, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-117bsoe r-mvpalk r-156q2ks\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-9x6qib r-t23y2h r-rs99b7 r-jw8lkh r-dap0kf r-1udh08x\">\n<div class=\"css-901oao r-4iw3lz r-1xk2f4g r-hkyrab r-1qd0xha r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-109y4c4 r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-1udh08x r-wwvuq4 r-u8s1d r-92ng3h r-qvutc0\" dir=\"auto\">Here&#8217;s what Trump wrote that prompted my tweet &#8211; that will have FAR-REACHING implications:<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1loqt21 r-o7ynqc r-1j63xyz\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"blockquote\" aria-haspopup=\"false\" data-focusable=\"true\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1awozwy r-6koalj r-18u37iz r-1wbh5a2 r-vlx1xi r-156q2ks\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1wbh5a2 r-1udh08x\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1habvwh r-dnmrzs\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1wbh5a2 r-dnmrzs\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1wbh5a2 r-dnmrzs\" role=\"presentation\" aria-haspopup=\"false\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-18u37iz r-1wbh5a2 r-dnmrzs\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-18u37iz r-dnmrzs\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-sdzlij r-1q142lx r-z80fyv r-7o8qx1 r-1udh08x r-19wmn03\" role=\"presentation\" aria-haspopup=\"false\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1mlwlqe r-z80fyv r-1udh08x r-19wmn03 r-417010\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e430a1010.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"489\" height=\"238\" class=\"size-full wp-image-60181 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e430a1010.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e430a1010.png 489w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e430a1010-300x146.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 489px) 100vw, 489px\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li id=\"edYFVMF\"><\/li>\n<li>12:02PM &#8211; &#8220;<strong><em><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">I gave you <\/span><span class=\"r-18u37iz\">$USDJPY<\/span><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\"> right before the drop. Now I call your attention to <\/span><span class=\"r-18u37iz\">$HYG<\/span><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">. <\/span><\/em><\/strong><span class=\"r-18u37iz\"><strong><em>#NotDone<\/em><\/strong>&#8220;<\/span><\/li>\n<li>12:52PM &#8211;\u00a0 (Based on my &#8220;mama knows best&#8221; warning tweet.) &#8220;<span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\"><strong><em>Btw: Ready for Round 2?<\/em><\/strong>&#8220;<\/span><\/li>\n<li>3:09PM &#8211; (Based on RT from CCP mouthpiece that &#8220;US can&#8217;t find alternative market with China&#8217;s potential&#8221;.) &#8220;<span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">Why would China tweet that&#8230;NOW&#8230;with Dow down 573 pts&#8230;when they know the whole world is watching? To make Trump bite. And he did&#8230;he tweeted immediately after he just didn&#8217;t care. <\/span><span class=\"r-18u37iz\"><a class=\"css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1n1174f r-1loqt21 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\" dir=\"ltr\" role=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Brinksmanship?src=hashtag_click\" data-focusable=\"true\">#Brinksmanship&#8221;<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li>3:24PM &#8211; (Based on RT of morning tweet of warning that Trump would over-react with retaliation on China.) &#8220;<strong><em>See my morning tweet then have a look at the news: Just In: Trump considering 25% tariffs on all Chinese goods<\/em><\/strong>.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>My play-by-play analysis made my clients A LOT OF MONEY Friday in my<a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/fishing-club\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Live Trading Room<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For Week Ending 8\/23\/2019:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><em>Chase: +49.39% ROI<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Swing: +17.44% ROI<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Trend: -1.08% ROI<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span class=\"css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0\">By 9:35AM, I had trade alerts triggering short i<\/span>n: $BABA, $SMH, $AAPL, $BA, $GS, $AMZN, $NVDA and adding $GLD long (to my $GDX long).<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-xoduu5 r-1mlwlqe r-1d2f490 r-1udh08x r-u8s1d r-h9hxbl r-417010\" aria-label=\"\ud83d\udca9\">\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1niwhzg r-vvn4in r-u6sd8q r-x3cy2q r-1p0dtai r-xoduu5 r-1pi2tsx r-1d2f490 r-u8s1d r-zchlnj r-ipm5af r-13qz1uu r-1wyyakw\">Total Account Value is up over 10% since July 15th. I don&#8217;t need to tell you that&#8217;s pretty decent given high levels of cash, current market environment and constant headline risk.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #33cccc;\"><strong><em><a style=\"color: #33cccc;\" href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/the-chase-is-on\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Come Fish With Me<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><em><a class=\"small-button smallteal\" style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/product-announcement-laductradings-brokerage-triggered-trade-alerts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Brokerage-Triggered Trade Alerts!<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-xoduu5 r-1mlwlqe r-1d2f490 r-1udh08x r-u8s1d r-h9hxbl r-417010\" aria-label=\"\ud83d\udca9\">\n<h2 class=\"css-1dbjc4n r-1niwhzg r-vvn4in r-u6sd8q r-x3cy2q r-1p0dtai r-xoduu5 r-1pi2tsx r-1d2f490 r-u8s1d r-zchlnj r-ipm5af r-13qz1uu r-1wyyakw\">My Inter-market Chart Read<\/h2>\n<p>I shared this chart with clients Tuesday August 21st in my Live Trading Room and regularly share my Intermarket Analysis and Interpretation with clients so as to help them better position and protect themselves in this headline-driven market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"VSMeHis\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1139\" height=\"627\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60195 \" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e.png 1139w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e-1024x564.png 1024w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e-1080x595.png 1080w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61eebc0075e-510x281.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1139px) 100vw, 1139px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Clients know from my prior <a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/weekly-fishing-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Intermarket Analysis posts<\/a> that institutions sell when BPNYA drops &lt;45. Further, it usually takes a double bottom before it reverses back up through 45 which is a much safer place to swing long.<\/p>\n<p id=\"pOoBBrz\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61f2f892f11.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1014\" height=\"482\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60197 \" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61f2f892f11.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61f2f892f11.png 1014w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61f2f892f11-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61f2f892f11-768x365.png 768w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61f2f892f11-510x242.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1014px) 100vw, 1014px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Subtleties in this NASI chart foretold weakness despite its oversold nature and Nasdaq price action. And still do&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Oversold RSI hadn&#8217;t crossed &gt; 30<\/li>\n<li>MACD hadn&#8217;t cross &gt; 0<\/li>\n<li>Nasdaq price action (purple line) didn&#8217;t match the weakness of NASI at all.<\/li>\n<li>NASI had gapped below 0 line (purple circle)<\/li>\n<li>NASI expansion bars were larger than the price action of the underlying based on weekly close which indicated intraday volatility from ATR expansion was picking up.<\/li>\n<li>NASDAQ only -5% from ATH but NASI &lt;0 and expanding to the downside and diverging against price action = likely roll-over.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p id=\"NeoatIx\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e10728a28.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"909\" height=\"859\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60178 \" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e10728a28.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e10728a28.png 909w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e10728a28-300x283.png 300w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e10728a28-768x726.png 768w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e10728a28-510x482.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 909px) 100vw, 909px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Small caps had broken down below my talked-above wedge apex (red arrow) and had only succeeded in only rallying into the underside of the resistance line (~4 levels of support). The relational strength of small caps to large caps\/SPX was weak as well (bottom panel).<\/p>\n<p id=\"aBLEYpz\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e38621ee4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"998\" height=\"681\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60180 \" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e38621ee4.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e38621ee4.png 998w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e38621ee4-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e38621ee4-768x524.png 768w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e38621ee4-510x348.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 998px) 100vw, 998px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Risk-Off had already occurred with USDJPY breaking down from the wedge (blue dashed trend-line), with Yen looking like it wanted to go into escape velocity mode, <a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/dailyfx-podcast-and-article-intermarket-analysis-with-samantha-laduc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as talked about since early June<\/a>, along with the safe haven trade of Gold, Silver and Miners.<\/p>\n<p id=\"GHBjFFQ\"><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e31d3bbe6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"849\" height=\"675\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60179 \" src=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e31d3bbe6.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e31d3bbe6.png 849w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e31d3bbe6-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e31d3bbe6-768x611.png 768w, https:\/\/laductrading.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/img_5d61e31d3bbe6-510x405.png 510w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p id=\"JUqOQap\">The above are just 5 charts that I monitor daily as part of my Macro-to-Micro analysis for clients. I use the discipline of Intermarket Analysis as a backdrop to spot divergences, breadth and depth of market internals, and for pattern recognition before bringing up a chart of the underlying asset from which to identify high-probability trade entries and exits. All the while, I am putting all of this technical interpretation against the backdrop of Macro<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>Macro Matters<\/h2>\n<p>FOMC on July 31st clearly didn&#8217;t signal or deliver the forward curve. Market wants a full 100 bps &#8216;in the bag&#8217;. Trump does too and has tweeted\/said as such. With that, Fed really needed to make a sacrificial offering of 50 bps to avoid market&#8217;s and Trump&#8217;s wrath. They didn&#8217;t. I wrote about this for clients July 30th as part of <a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/where-us-rates-look-to-be-going-and-its-not-to-zero-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">My Macro View Next 6-12 Months<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Combine the Market\/Trump reaction Friday with clear reports of global economic slowdown, add-in the assumption that a global slowdown would hit American shores, and the result is the US economy will deteriorate. Market has not priced this in. But now they might. I contend:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><em>Fed will continue to act &#8216;appropriately&#8217; &#8211; as a result risk assets will suffer<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Trump will continue to ratchet up the Trade War &#8211; as a result risk assets will suffer<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I have been chided for having a smart-sounding pessimistic argument that does not fully consider the bullish backdrop that has rewarded those who hold their nose and buy:<\/p>\n<p>* Underfunded Pensions<br \/>\n* Stock Buybacks<br \/>\n* Private Equity<br \/>\n* Yield Differential<br \/>\n* TINA<\/p>\n<p>I have an argument for each: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><em><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/2019\/volatility-reprices-everything\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Volatility Reprices Everything<\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why Was I Short? What Did I See? The following is a recap of my Intraday Trading off Headline-Risks Friday, along with some of my Intermarket Analysis leading up into the big sell-off that clients had in advance, plus an overview of my Macro Views that support more selling to come. First, here is a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-templates\/market-thoughts.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[211,6],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Market Thoughts: Out Of The Pool &#187; LaDuc Trading<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Samantha LaDuc\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Samantha LaDuc\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a1ac00d000cf8119c99f8bc3d3afe956\"},\"headline\":\"Market Thoughts: Out Of The Pool\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-08-25T19:47:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-10-21T04:51:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/\"},\"wordCount\":1598,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Market Thoughts\",\"Public Blog\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/market-thoughts-out-of-the-pool\/\",\"name\":\"Market Thoughts: Out Of The Pool &#187; 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