{"id":30295,"date":"2019-03-03T13:28:58","date_gmt":"2019-03-03T18:28:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/?p=30295"},"modified":"2019-03-07T14:08:05","modified_gmt":"2019-03-07T19:08:05","slug":"a-prediction-come-true-then-and-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/a-prediction-come-true-then-and-now\/","title":{"rendered":"A Prediction Come True: Then and Now"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

Back in Mid-December (2018), I had a theory, a strong one, and I wanted to get my clients’ attention so my article title – uncharacteristically – was total click-bait:\u00a0Why Do I See A Flash Crash Coming?<\/a><\/p>\n

It was a market timing call for a correction\/drawdown\/flashcrash … FOR IDES OF MARCH 2019, even though it was only December 12th at the time of my writing. You may think I misread the December 10% correction for March. Nope, I called that too. And the “rip your face off rally” that followed.<\/p>\n

Here’s what I wrote – again December 12, 2018:<\/p>\n

This is the NYSE Composite Index \u2013 on a Weekly timeframe. Look carefully at the red circles \u2013 both top panel red circles which indicate a 50\/100 EMA crossover and bottom panel which indicates a MACD rollover below the zero line. Oh, except for that one EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT spike in early January which is what I used to call the January Swoon ;-).<\/p>\n

Point of this exercise is to have you focus in on the yellow dotted lines that follow the red circles in the MACD box. Do you see how the 50\/100 EMA crossover occurs with a severe market drawdown or waterfall? And how the MACD rollover below 0 foretells the danger? ALL THREE TIMES?!\u00a0 What about the 4th?<\/p>\n

Ah, that hasn\u2019t happened yet….But the patterns leading into 2000, 2008 and 2015 strongly suggest a 4th significant market drawdown event is forming.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here is the chart I presented 12\/12\/18:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

How’d I do?<\/h3>\n

The market exactly hit Red Bullet #4 dotted-white-line on that fateful Christmas Eve Massacre. And we crashed down into $10,724 white-box-arrow on the NYSE composite.<\/p>\n

So then what did I predict after predicting we would drop – and before we even dropped? That we would have a “potentially violent” bounce. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

CHECK! Just so happens we have bounced 19.9% in two months. I would call that violent!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Where did I predict we would bounce – after crashing to my Red Bullet #4 that is?<\/p>\n

“then bounce back into a 50\/100W crossover\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Did I give a level of price target for NYSE?<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we bounce back into the 12,400 area which is 10\/21 Mo EMA crossover<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And Here We Are<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

So Now What?<\/h3>\n

Let’s go back to the above soundbite all written December 12, 2018 and finish the sentence:<\/p>\n

I am projecting we pull down into that trendline support below the 100W EMA (white box and arrow) then bounce back into a 50\/100W crossover BEFORE POTENTIALLY AND VIOLENTLY CRASHING LOWER IN Q1 OF THE NEW YEAR.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Possible Crash Timing?<\/p>\n

Remember the Ides of March: Bank Reserve Ratio Reports, FOMC Meeting, Trade Tariff Deadlines, Trump, Fed, China, BREXIT \u2026 point is, I will be watching the Macro, Fundamental, Intermarket and Technical background very closely to see how a trigger can justify my market timing call for a \u201cFlash Crash\u201d in Q1. just like I saw, alerted and traded with you in January and again in October of this year!!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Three months after this client post, we are approaching March 15th and I expect the Ides of March to be eventful. Clients of LaDucTrading will receive my market-timing calls with both my macro narrative and technical levels to trade against.<\/p>\n

If you were a client during my market timing calls for the 20% drawdown from Oct 3rd to December 24th, and rally from December 26th to now, you are very happy that you were. If you are not receiving at a minimum my entry-level membership ($150\/month), then I strongly urge you to consider.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Gone Fishing Newsletter – my macro-themed reports that present what is moving and my perspective on why.<\/li>\n
  2. Intermarket Chart Attack – my selective relational study work that identifies trend reversals (like this) for low-risk entries.<\/li>\n
  3. The Week Ahead – key market-moving events for the upcoming week and how to trade them.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Thanks for reading and please consider joining me in the LaDucTrading LIVE Trading Room<\/a>\u00a0where I take macro and market-moving news, give it context, and recommend trade ideas from it. For additional education, I provide my LIVE Trade Alerts<\/a> from Interactive Broker to clients interested in my Value and Momentum stock and option plays.<\/p>\n

    \n

    At LaDucTrading, Samantha LaDuc leads the analysis, education and trading services. She analyzes price patterns and inter-market relationships across stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates; develops macro investment themes to identify tactical trading opportunities; and employs strategic technical analysis to deliver high conviction stock, sector and market calls. Through LIVE portfolio-tracking, across multiple time-frames, we offer real-time Trade Alerts via SMS\/email that frame the Thesis, Triggers, Time Frames, Trade Set-ups and Option Tactics. Samantha excels in chart pattern recognition, volatility insight with some big-picture macro perspective\u00a0thrown in.<\/p>\n

    More Macro:\u00a0\u00a0@SamanthaLaDuc\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0Macro-to-<\/strong>Micro:\u00a0@LaDucTrading<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Back in Mid-December (2018), I had a theory, a strong one, and I wanted to get my clients’ attention so my article title – uncharacteristically – was total click-bait:\u00a0Why Do I See A Flash Crash Coming? It was a market timing call for a correction\/drawdown\/flashcrash … FOR IDES OF MARCH 2019, even though it was […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30328,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,6],"tags":[526,525],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Prediction Come True: Then and Now » LaDuc Trading<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/laductrading.com\/a-prediction-come-true-then-and-now\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Samantha LaDuc\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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