Today, we got the Fed’s sixth rate hike in this cycle which brings the Fed Funds target range to 1.50–1.75%. (We were at 2% right after Lehman Brothers for perspective.) Guidance moving forward was for 3 not 4 more hikes this year. In an effort to balance their optimism on growth, they view inflation will continue to be soft. With that, all eyes will be on inflation metrics for every change will trigger a yield move. If the economy runs too hot, and inflation picks up, then the market will start to price in more hikes. Definitely thinking the inverse is not true.
The following was my Note to Clients this morning: Positioning for Fed Day and Beyond – My Market Thoughts. It also serves as an example of the type of analysis and trade set ups I spy every morning and send to Fishing Club Members. FB, in particular proved to be well-timed, as was AAPL and VXX. They made up (and then some) for being wrong-sided on Gold. That’s Trading!!