Macro-to-Micro Analyst+Trader Forecast+Chase https://t.co/MrMkwZYdvt https://t.co/GZILqexQ5C https://t.co/yZsZJcrKAz https://t.co/UmKuhy2OwV
The market prices in the truth only after reacting (overreacting) to the best case scenario when it’s ‘happy’ + worst case when it’s not.
Do markets look like they have priced in "worst case"? Then why keep looking for/calling this "capitulation"?
Capitulation vs Forced Selling
Economists get paid on modeling which they learned from other economists + is based on consensus: PAST behaviors.
Those "normal distribution curve" folks may be reasonably trusted 80% of the time, but when we have a Long Tail or FAT TAIL event in the making, you wanna follow me.
Calls been #RightAsRain https://twitter.com/SamanthaLaDuc/status/1527690917699788801