S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946

S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946

Higher Rates Can Be Bullish Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market, but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a blip on a chart). From a...
Bond Weary

Bond Weary

S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946 Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market–but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a...
Rate Prognasticators are as popular as Pollsters

Rate Prognasticators are as popular as Pollsters

Polls and predictive models failed to predict Trump’s strength let alone his win. That’s nothing. Wall street analysts and economists have been getting the rate thing wrong for years, and not by a little. Bloomberg reported hardly anyone on Wall Street saw the...
October Macro View Review: Did I Say That?

October Macro View Review: Did I Say That?

Every month I write a swing trading newsletter for those who can’t join me in my LIVE Fishing Daily Trading Room but want my macro take on the month ahead, or just my trade ideas they can set and forget. The daily room is for active traders where we mostly chase...
Pre-Election Results: Oversold Support But Not Really

Pre-Election Results: Oversold Support But Not Really

The entire world awaits the results of the U.S. Presidential Election. Unprecedented angst and uncertainty. And risk. As of Nov 5th, SPX was pricing in a 68% chance for a 33 point move by Nov 9th, the day after the election. That’s a ~$66 expected move in either...