Market Thoughts: Value, Here Me Roar

Market Thoughts: Value, Here Me Roar

I have recently presented my case that central bank liquidity infusions to stem the economic damage from CoronaVirus could ignite inflation. If so, value stocks would roar back, since so many are tied to the Energy complex. And then a curious thing happened today: both Value (VALU) and Momentum (MTUM) were green in equal amounts […]

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Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 3 – 7th: Monday

Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 3 – 7th: Monday

Market Thoughts This was a grind kinda day once markets settled in after the open. China had the weekend to mitigate the market risk by infusing liquidity like this: Great line: We’re going to see central banks square off against this coronavirus swan until it is contained. We should all have a surgical mask and […]

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Anatomy of a Trade: Yen Short (FXY GLD GDX TLT)

Anatomy of a Trade: Yen Short (FXY GLD GDX TLT)

Much attention of late has been focused, with good reason, on rising yields, falling bond prices and the collapse in the Japanese Yen and Gold. So many assets are correlated that as a strategic technical analyst I look for macro themes to show themselves in...
S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946

S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946

Higher Rates Can Be Bullish Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market, but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a blip on a chart). From a...
Bond Weary

Bond Weary

S&P Bulls and Bond Bears Pin Hopes to 1946 Interest rates follow very long term cycles. Above highlights a 35 year (1946-1981) bond market–but unlike our most recent 35 year (1981-2016) bond market, they were in a rising rate environment (for more than a...
Why We Bounced Today in 3 Charts

Why We Bounced Today in 3 Charts

 SPX on Support Actually $SPX hit two levels of support which happen to coincide–the 200D and a weekly trend line which creates its lower channel. This combo is even more, well, supportive.   Sentiment was also at a low so it doesn’t hurt that there was...
Election Results? #BTD or #NotDoneYet

Election Results? #BTD or #NotDoneYet

An election–whether waiting on the results or dealing with the aftermath–can make anyone feel afloat in a paper boat on choppy water, small umbrella to protect from the swelling wave. A lot is at stake–both for our nation and for our market. I would...
Pre-Election Results: Oversold Support But Not Really

Pre-Election Results: Oversold Support But Not Really

The entire world awaits the results of the U.S. Presidential Election. Unprecedented angst and uncertainty. And risk. As of Nov 5th, SPX was pricing in a 68% chance for a 33 point move by Nov 9th, the day after the election. That’s a ~$66 expected move in either...