Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups

Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups

Second Half Market Thoughts By my estimation, and as I’ve warned in my live trading room past month+, Summer Trading will likely include wide swings – in both directions, between SPX $2950-$3250. More than likely, Treasury will keep cash handy to use to support the market and keep it from dropping into the Election. Still, […]

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Fishing Plan for Week of May 4 – 8: Rapid Shifts

Fishing Plan for Week of May 4 – 8: Rapid Shifts

Market Thoughts This morning I had one target in SPX as called out in my live trading room: $2898. It was hit aaaand then it was rejected. (Not my first rodeo.) Having said that, I still expect chop this week into Non-Farm Payrolls. A few reasons: We haven’t gone anywhere really but sideways for 18 […]

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Intermarket Chart Attack: Sell What In May?

Intermarket Chart Attack: Sell What In May?

Big Picture: We are still in a bear market. And as I suggested in late March, I see a multi-month process of digesting the out-sized downdraft in Feb/March, which includes both large rallies and failures. We have only seen the April bear market rally. But as we enter...
Premium Video: May Day Market Review

Premium Video: May Day Market Review

For Clients Only: As warned Thursday in my live trading room, and in my “Month in Review: Nobody left to Squeeze“ client post, markets had hit key resistance levels Thursday and would likely digest/pull back post FOMC and FAAMG earnings. Friday morning I warned at the open: “I think we’re going to have a trend […]

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Gone Fishing Newsletter: The Economic Event of Our Lifetime

Gone Fishing Newsletter: The Economic Event of Our Lifetime

Macro Matters Below I include a Guest Captain Commentary that dovetails perfectly with my Macro thesis. Practically every word of Steve’s missive I support (bolded emphasis/red highlights mine), as I have repeatedly called out in my market analysis for clients. Further, I believe the following five themes frame the backdrop of challenges to our economy and […]

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Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 10-14th: Monday

Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 10-14th: Monday

Market Thoughts  My market timing call Friday: Going into the weekend with headline and actual risk, we see bonds and gold getting bid up while miners and silver sell off. Tech is rallying but I contend we are approaching a point soon where this likely becomes a Sold...
Fishing Idea: Reflation for Banks 2020

Fishing Idea: Reflation for Banks 2020

Market Thoughts Before the WHO declared China ‘not in a pandemic’ today OR supply manager surveys on manufacturing (released this morning) signaled a classic restocking boom, I made the call to clients in my last 4 posts since Friday, that the epidemic interrupted AND would ignite reflation trades. With that, the market is gaping up […]

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Market Thoughts: Value, Here Me Roar

Market Thoughts: Value, Here Me Roar

I have recently presented my case that central bank liquidity infusions to stem the economic damage from CoronaVirus could ignite inflation. If so, value stocks would roar back, since so many are tied to the Energy complex. And then a curious thing happened today: both Value (VALU) and Momentum (MTUM) were green in equal amounts […]

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Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 3 – 7th: Monday

Fishing Plan for Week of Feb 3 – 7th: Monday

Market Thoughts This was a grind kinda day once markets settled in after the open. China had the weekend to mitigate the market risk by infusing liquidity like this: Great line: We’re going to see central banks square off against this coronavirus swan until it is contained. We should all have a surgical mask and […]

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Daily Fishing Video for 2-16-17: Volatility Returns!

Six solidly green $SPX daily candles leading into Wednesday, but even God rested on the 7th Day!! As I tweeted Wednesday night: “Not so rare when $VIX + $SPX up together but extremely rare when $VIX, $VIX futures + $SPX up together.” This was prescient as the market finally stopped going up today. Here’s what […]

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