Macro Matters Below I include a Guest Captain Commentary that dovetails perfectly with my Macro thesis. Practically every word of Steve’s missive I support (bolded emphasis/red highlights mine), as I have repeatedly called out in my market analysis for clients. Further, I believe the following five themes frame the backdrop of challenges to our economy and […]
Macro-to-Micro Analyst+OptionsTrader Forecast+Chase https://t.co/MrMkwZYdvt https://t.co/GZILqexQ5C https://t.co/yZsZJcrKAz @LaDucTrading
Is front-running Dec OPEX in full view with this massive short-covering rally?
Many predicting much higher SPY + strong Santa Rally post Dec OPEX, but when comparing major lows coinciding with day after OPEX, we need a gut-check:
Do you consider $SPX $4500 a "major low"?
Then, suddenly, on 12/17 those 3.3 million puts expire. Dealers find themselves short too many futures, and needing to cover ASAP. Trap released. Markets rally.
Consider 2 other major lows coinciding with the day after OPEX:
Dec 24th, 2018
March 23rd, 2020
First we have to survive this year 😉
Market front-runs likely CPI disappointment - thinks Fed won’t pull forward tapering + rates to fight inflation - so good for equities.
Reality: liquidity-induced $SPX short squeeze.
Then market discovers Fed is serious. $VIX pops again.
@IdiSrinivas @LukeGromen @rubecube12 @Stimpyz1 @RaisingTheBAR47 @acosgrove003 @SamanthaLaDuc @MarketInterest @Alex__Salomon @HammerstoneMar3 @jam_croissant @tr8derz @HayekAndKeynes @kevinmuir @Barton_options Faster taper is quid pro quo in order to pass Build Back Better (Manchin top demand). Those who think there isn't the will to sustain fiscal haven't been paying attention. Macro-economy will be red hot in 2022.
Told my clients few wks ago:
“You’ve heard the expression, ‘If $80 then $100’? With $ARKK, it’s if $100 then $80!”
$ARKK stoped updating it's Ytd return on their website