Reflections and Gratitude

I had a few good calls in 2020 – and a few big lessons that carried into this year and helped me navigate for clients while also growing my own ‘voice’.

First lesson learned: Trust my trading gut…

I say that because one of my best calls was in knowing Feb 18th (2020) the market was going to roll over and roll over hard. Clients can attest, I was adamant. And then, when everyone else was pounding the table to buy every dip, I said to press short into the Friday Mar 20th (2020) low. I had really good indicators to keep us short into that Fed Intervention low of March 23rd, but it was my gut (mostly) that * knew * we were in trouble before we started that 35% crash on Fed 23rd. I had no idea we would do a full-on “V” to the levels we have now, however, which leads me to the 2nd lesson…

Second lesson learned: Trust my trading gut AND never assume.

Gamestop was another more-than-profitable gut call. It was my #1 “$4 to $40” stock pick in July of 2020 – long before Michael Burry announced his position or Reddit traders made headlines. I was adamant this was a 10 bagger – despite push-back from my own team members at the time. I stuck with that GME call for clients but then vehemently warned clients to sell at $240 after the meme madness hit. I * knew * this was going higher at $4 but had no idea $480 would print.

Oil was another really big trade of 2020. Months before oil went negative, I wrote a long missive to clients about Oil dropping into what I predicted would be $10 crude. I had no idea oil would do what it did and go deeply negative. I wrote another Oil missive back in March of this year (2021) for clients, after already recommending Energy in Q4 2020 as the #1 trade for Q1 2021 (which it turned out to be). Basically, I saw much higher oil and gas prices for this year. And with that, I have been a staunch ‘Inflationista’ – reminding clients of my THINGS OVER PAPER theme from summer 2020 and INFLATION = STICKY mantra long before analysts and economists came out of the woodwork predicting higher ‘THINGS’ and ‘STICKY’ inflation. And yet, to my surprise, Fed has managed to keep volatility suppressed and interest rates from spiking.

Fourth lesson learned: I am worthy.

I’m deeply aware that I have no pedigree (certifications, wall street resume or sponsors) to do what I do, and I’m certainly not well-known, or even male in this largely male-dominated industry! But… I was given some kind of gift to see patterns and understand context out of data not to mention a dogged determination to always be curious and a steadfast desire to help others who help themselves. Clients who find and stay with me are precious to me. Worth more than the small stipend you pay me monthly is the faith each of you place in me to be worth your time. That matters more to me than money.