First Published: May 5, 2022
And today, this is still Samantha’s baseline bet – higher oil, higher interest rates, higher US dollar.
To date, Samantha’s been spot on for her market timing calls:
- Baseline case since July 2020: Things over Paper and Inflation is Sticky.
- Baseline case in August 2020: Bonds are done going up.
- Baseline case in December 2020: Energy will outperform Tech in 2021.
- Baseline case in March 2021: Oil is the Inflation Hedge and crude will double within a year.
March 2021: “It’s going to plan perfectly when bonds roll over, structurally forcing rates to pop, then oil spikes with the Reflation trades (think inflation spike), while Momentum stocks are sold off because they’re overvalued relative to Value…and cause indices to correct. This move could be quicker than folks think as liquidity is ‘challenged’ in bonds sell off and Volatility in the bond market spills over into equities.”
Her clients know market calls continue to amaze. Here are current Market Predictions still playing out:
- Baseline case in October 2021: Deflation (of wages) Ended With Covid (wages will play catch up with productivity and bonds will play catch down.)
- Baseline case in January 2022: Nasdaq underperformance, Growth-to-Value rotation continues.
- Baseline case in early March 2022: Crude oil reached March 2021 price target of $130 and will now reach $160 by summer and $260 within a year.
- Baseline case in early April 2022: Currencies matter. JPY and CNY devaluations drive US yields and dollar much higher even as oil spikes into summer.
December 2021: “2022 will set the stage for problems that will test our new traders and our old 40-year long macro frameworks. The Fed Put has moved, and since 2013 taper tantrum, I would wager it sits about 20% below current market prices. Basically an accommodative Fed reduces volatility. A tightening Fed, by definition, triggers it. With that, Value should lose less than Growth at the very least if not straight-out outperform.”
The Prediction Business is hard. After the fact… not so much.
Now that SPX fell into Samantha’s $3800 price target from her January market call, and oil, yields and dollar have continued to rise, now everyone claims to see what Samantha called out early and often back in November/December/January.
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Samantha LaDuc, Founder LaDucTrading.