This is an Intermarket Analysis chart review I provided to my fishing club members this past weekend to graphically represent relationships (strong and weak) which can foretell where stocks, sectors and indices might move next!
What happened to suppressing volatility? Volatility of volatility looks flat/basing for better part of a year. Careful.
This has to be one of my favorite intermarket analysis charts. It got me long in May 2016 (see BIG at MIT PPT) and has me scratching my head since it burst through that yellow line in the lower MACD panel in January 2018. Careful.
I recommended GLD/SLV/GDX long pre-FOMC, for reasons made self-explanatory below. Now I’m shorting Gold on a USD bounce. What USD bounce? See next few slides…
Euro has reached 50% Fib target so where it heads next will greatly impact DXY. Yes, Draghi trumps Trump.
US Dollar – two perspectives: Both say bounce is due.
Energy is starting to weaken, which would time nicely with a USD bounce. Careful.
A bid in Commodities has been bid and then some, although a potential bounce in USD will challenge this breakout. A retest is a good way to buy commodities again, later, to play the theme of higher rates and inflation. Might just want to wait until after the USD is done bouncing. Careful.
Final Thought: Friday is Non Farm Payrolls so this chart matters only/most when the break gets/stays above the pink line. CAREFUL.
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At LaDucTrading, I analyze price patterns and intermarket relationships across stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates. I develop macro investment themes to identify tactical trading opportunities and employ strategic technical analysis to deliver high conviction stock, sector and market calls. Through LIVE portfolio-tracking, across multiple time-frames, my real-time Trade Alerts via SMS/email frame my Thesis, Triggers, Time Frames, Trade Set-ups and Option Tactics. I selectively use Unusual Option Activity (UOA) and Deal Flow but no proprietary indicators – just solid chart pattern recognition, volatility insight and some big-picture perspective thrown in. Twitter: @SamanthaLaDuc