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Hedge Fund / Buy-side Research: JD Q4 2025, unpacking the segment results

JD.com – A lot more than just core retail

Looking a the results division by division

WATCH 📺 the link HERE

In this episode called “name”, we review the segment results of JD, starting with the JD Retail division, growing at 13% for the full year, with some high-level comparison on Q4 because of heavy government subsidies back in Q4 2024.

The core JD Retail had an operating income of 7.5 billion USD for 2025. This should be capitalized at 10x its EBIT, and probably more, between 10–15x EV/EBIT.

But then we discuss the results of the listed entities: JD Health, JD Logistics, and JD Industrials (a newly listed entity).

JD Industrials deserves separate coverage, as it is a dominant company with a reasonable EV/Sales, not only compared to its Chinese peers but also to its US peers. The market is much larger than the US market for industrial logistics solutions.

Then there is the quick commerce division, which has apparently narrowed its losses in every quarter, per management disclosure.

Also, JoyBuy has been launched in Europe. Basically, now Amazon has competition in same-day delivery in Europe.

What would be interesting would be to know the results of Jingxi, which is a unit doing group purchasing, social purchasing, a model similar to Pinduoduo for very tight budgets and people living in the countryside.

In the next post, we will take an approach of:
JD Retail 100% at 10x to 15x EV/EBIT
Plus net cash
Plus stakes in:
JD Healthcare
JD Logistics
JD Industrials

And then there is the question of the valuation of the new businesses. Right now, the valuation of the new businesses is negative, which is particularly absurd, given that JD Industrials was previously in new businesses and is now a profitable, separately listed entity.

 👇

WATCH 📺 the link HERE


About the author

Geoffrey provides unique insights. As DM and EM start to switch places in fiscal dominance regimes, his experience from a firm that traded EM bonds in the early 2000s will prove crucial. He is also versed in pre-FX as reserve monetary systems ( prior to 1922) and it will prove handy to understand local ccy trading, and its impact in FX, bonds, PM and currencies. 

 Former portfolio manager of 15 years at York Asset Management, a US and UK based firm specialized in Global Risk Arbitrage & Special Situations, Geoffrey is now CEO of DocuTalk, a NY-based software company that pioneered a new visual format to interactively present documents in video format using patented technology (and featured in the ’30 year anniversary’ edition of the Investor Relations Magazine New York).

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