THAT!
My bet remains for 2022-24:
Waves of inflation peaks and equity bottoms.
Nasdaq a bull market because it is up 20% off its low?
Who makes this stuff up?
After 2000, the Nasdaq did that 7 times as it fell 78% to its 2002 low.
Worth mulling over on a day when the market is celebrating an "easing" of inflation. There's been a step function in prices since 2020. Pressure for real wages to compensate for that is going to be relentless. Tight labor mkt is getting more so as college students return to class https://twitter.com/SamanthaLaDuc/status/1557321695601516545
Oct 2021 I predicted this:
https://laductrading.com/deflation-ended-with-covid/
The trend in productivity growth is worse than before Covid while higher wages (“surge in unit labor costs”) makes a Fed pivot, in my long-held opinion, the outlier - as inflation stays sticky where it matters to the Fed: WAGES https://twitter.com/eshow1969/status/1557047729842446337
Oct 2021 I predicted this:
https://laductrading.com/deflation-ended-with-covid/
The trend in productivity growth is worse than before Covid while higher wages (“surge in unit labor costs”) makes a Fed pivot, in my long-held opinion, the outlier - as inflation stays sticky where it matters to the Fed: WAGES
Wages increased 10.7% in the second quarter (9.5% exp) and productivity fell at a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.6%, following a 7.4% pullback in Q1 (largest drop in 74 years)…….sure looks like we have hit the stagflation portion of the agenda.