FISH STORIES / BLOG

Occasionally I blog about fishing, the fishing industry and behind the scenes in the life of this humble fisher. These can be rigorously thought-out or pure fluff pieces. You get what you get. Kinda like fishing.
Market Thoughts: Looking To Change It Up

Market Thoughts: Looking To Change It Up

Market Thoughts It's been over a year now since the 'official' start of the US-China Trade War, if picking Day 1: July 6, 2018 – US implements first China-specific tariffs. I wrote about this disconnect between market price action and valuations in my SeeItMarket...

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Market Thoughts: Trump Triggers China Short Ideas

Market Thoughts: Trump Triggers China Short Ideas

Market Thoughts When is the last time we had Rate cuts and QE at the same time?! We just got both and although it may not time or rhyme with 1995 and 1998 or 2001 and 2007, it certainly does feel foreboding given both trade tensions AND economic slowdown.  THAT was my...

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Elevating Trader Education

Elevating Trader Education

“If I quit now, I will soon be back to where I started. And when I started I was desperately wishing to be where I am now.”  That's how I felt after I embarked on a journey to build a Trader Education App that linked live market orders in a real brokerage account with...

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Market Thoughts: To Cut Or Not To Cut

Market Thoughts: To Cut Or Not To Cut

Market Thoughts  Bifurcated Rate Cut Sentiment When Fed member John Williams suggested last Thursday  that ‘r-star’ is .50%, markets took it as a sign that a 50 bps rate cut is in the cards. Bonds rallied, markets recovered their day’s losses and Gold and Silver...

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Market Thoughts: The Race To The Bottom

Market Thoughts: The Race To The Bottom

Market Thoughts   Central Banks On Parade Markets have no fear. Stocks are at all time highs and Volatility is at all time lows. ECB, BOJ and FED are all due to report their rate decisions in the next week. Draghi goes first. And judging from the price action you...

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Market Thoughts: Thinking Out Loud

Market Thoughts: Thinking Out Loud

Market Thoughts To catch you up on Last Week’s Fishing Lessons / Daily Weather Reports: Monday (yesterday): Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Volatility Friday: Market Thoughts: Oil About To Get Busy? Thursday: Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Gold Wednesday: Market...

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Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Volatility

Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Volatility

Market Thoughts My volatility senses were piqued last Monday. I sent out a warning for a market rollover: If you thought that was a nice move from 3018 to 2985, well consider this: my breadth indicators (this is but one) are indicating the roll-over is just starting....

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Market Thoughts: Oil About To Get Busy?

Market Thoughts: Oil About To Get Busy?

Market Thoughts Stocks faded hard into the close Friday, along with Gold and Silver. This was the worst week since end of May. So what changed? Most point to the market discounting that the Fed might not be dovish enough - cutting by only 25 bps versus 50 bps. Market...

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Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Gold

Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Gold

Market Thoughts Gold Skyrocketed. Why? We have experienced a lot of dis-inflationary headwinds from the synchronized global slowdown and ultra loose monetary policies in the US, Europe and Asia specifically but globally in general. What could change these dis...

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Market Thoughts: Silver and Gold Are The New VIX

Market Thoughts: Silver and Gold Are The New VIX

Market Thoughts There's a lot to unpack in the growing instability of the markets right now so I'm going to resort to equal parts summarizing with granularity. Banks - All four Big Banks have reported - C, BAC, JPM, WFC  - and all delivered positive earnings surprises...

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Market Thoughts: As Good As It Gets?

Market Thoughts: As Good As It Gets?

Market Thoughts "What makes it so hard is not that you had it bad, but that you're that pissed that so many others had it good." Melvin Udall in As Good As It Gets movie Correct me if I'm wrong, but many traders are in a state of angst. Despite all-time-highs, they...

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Samantha’s Fault!

Samantha’s Fault!

My cheery, live trading room moderator, WallStreetJane, can be heard calling out, "Samantha's Fault!" And she's right. All FIVE Daily Market Thoughts from LAST WEEK (July 8-12) are now posted in the right place... under FISHING LESSONS for non-members, Daily Weather...

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Market Thoughts: If You Give A Mouse A Cookie

Market Thoughts: If You Give A Mouse A Cookie

Market Thoughts If you give a mouse a cookie is a children's book that came immediately to mind when reading the constant debate about the slippery slope of 'allowing' markets to influence the Fed's monetary policies. The plot goes like this: A boy gives a cookie to a...

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Market Thoughts: “Crosscurrents”

Market Thoughts: “Crosscurrents”

Market Thoughts In a prepared statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut citing “crosscurrents” that are weighing on the economy. Initially, dollar dumped and acted as a catalyst for S&P futures to shoot up. The bullish statement is the salve markets...

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Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts and Dollar Devaluation

Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts and Dollar Devaluation

Market Thoughts The US 10-year yield is chugging higher while the S&P drips lower to its 8D support - with Powell's speech released 90 mins before the open Wednesday (i.e. 8:30 Eastern). USD bulls will argue that any rate cut would be "one and done", but Fed has never...

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Trading Room is Closed Friday July 5th

Trading Room is Closed Friday July 5th

It's a holiday-shortened week and although I will be running my Live Trading Room Mon,Tues and Wed (market closes at 1PM Wed), markets are closed Thursday for Independence Day and I will be traveling Friday to visit family in upstate NY ... So No Trading Room Friday!...

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Market Thoughts: Stall Speed

Market Thoughts: Stall Speed

Market Thoughts I added no Volatility into the G20 event. I expected 'optics' not specifics. There was talk of compromise, some would say can-kicking: Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on an another $300 billion of Chinese goods (versus the earlier threat...

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Market Thoughts: Livin’ On A Prayer

Market Thoughts: Livin’ On A Prayer

Market Thoughts Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not You live for the fight when it's all that you've got Woah, we're half way there Woah, livin' on a prayer Take my hand, we'll make it I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer ... Bon Jovi As we close the first half of 2019...

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Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals

Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals

Market Thoughts Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals: Markets seemingly have priced in both. Aside from my assumption that Powell is loathe to cut, although he knows how to keep hope alive as long as possible, Fed will unwind their prior tightening when and if Trade Tariff Wars...

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Guest Captain Commentary: Bitcoin Teed Up

Guest Captain Commentary: Bitcoin Teed Up

Tony Greer is Captain at TG Macro LLC, frequent RealVision Contributor, disarmingly funny writer as well as veteran stock trader. I read his delightful "Morning Navigator" every morning for ideas and for the smiles! Here's an example of why:  Bitcoin Teed Up As in...

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Market Thoughts: Headline Driven Dodgeball

Market Thoughts: Headline Driven Dodgeball

Market Thoughts Today was a perfect example of how Headlines are manipulated for supportive of markets' advance. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked up how well US-China talks are going (“90% completed” after just last month in May saying they were "95% done"). At...

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Market Thoughts – Powell Keeps Hope Alive

Market Thoughts – Powell Keeps Hope Alive

Market Thoughts While there wasn’t a rate cut last week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to avoid mention of it today, in both press conferences he did everything possible to keep hope alive. But herein lies the rub: unless Iran caves, unless China caves, unless...

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My Benzinga Presentation June 20 in NYC

My Benzinga Presentation June 20 in NYC

After FIVE FULL days in NYC, I am back home and back to my trading desk. My feet+wallet hurt in equal proportions as I secured an Apartment for my daughter’s internship on Wednesday and spent the Weekend walking, drinking and dining with my girlfriend who flew in from...

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The Week Ahead: June 24-28

The Week Ahead: June 24-28

Market Thoughts - Last Week While away from my trading desk last week, the Fed confirmed a stronger case for rate cuts and SPX ran to new all-time highs. This is not a surprise given it was Quad Witching Expiration and 26 out of the 29 last quad witching cycles saw a...

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Market Thoughts – Undercurrents

Market Thoughts – Undercurrents

Market Thoughts Samantha has returned from her trip to NYC but upon starting up her computer this morning experienced technical trouble. She has a nice new gaming keyboard and will be posting The Week Ahead tonight! Trading Room will be open Tuesday and with it, ...

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Market Thoughts – Mixed Bag

Market Thoughts – Mixed Bag

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Market Thoughts – It’s All Good, Man

Market Thoughts – It’s All Good, Man

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Guest Captain Commentary: Facebook and Crypto

Guest Captain Commentary: Facebook and Crypto

Howard Lindzon, founder of StockTwits where I recently launched a Premium Chat Room, writes a daily blog about investing. In particular I like his recent post about Facebook and the future of Cypto. Here it is, short but sweet: One the biggest technology stories of...

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Market Thoughts – Blurred Lines

Market Thoughts – Blurred Lines

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Market Thoughts – Super Mario Levels Up

Market Thoughts – Super Mario Levels Up

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Market Thoughts:  Waiting On The Fed

Market Thoughts: Waiting On The Fed

Market Thoughts Pre-Fed Waiting is painful, at least this FOMC meeting where it could go any number of ways. Analysts will deem the decision Hawkish or Dovish and debate it for days. Regardless, I do not see sustained market strength even if the initial market...

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The Week Ahead: June 17-21

The Week Ahead: June 17-21

Market Thoughts Last week I wrote about  my Best Fed guesses and week before that how Treasury yields are on the MOVE.  But all that seems to matter is that markets are heavily betting stocks will continue to rally despite an economic slowdown (in U.S., China, pretty...

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Announcing Fishing Lessons!

Announcing Fishing Lessons!

Each trading day Samantha scans and synthesizes macro and market moving news in an effort to bring the best Momentum and Value Plays to LaDucTrading clients. At the end of the trading day, now Members and Non-Members alike can receive a recap of Samantha’s market...

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Market Thoughts – Breathing in Fumes

Market Thoughts – Breathing in Fumes

Market Thoughts Market range for the week that ended was incredibly tight: we opened Monday and closed Friday within 1 point in SPX. I even joked in my live trading room that the intraday hourly squeezes (bollinger band contractions) on some stocks were "wrinkled"...

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