FISH STORIES / BLOG

Occasionally I blog about fishing, the fishing industry and behind the scenes in the life of this humble fisher. These can be rigorously thought-out or pure fluff pieces. You get what you get. Kinda like fishing.
Market Thoughts: Silver and Gold Are The New VIX

Market Thoughts: Silver and Gold Are The New VIX

Market Thoughts There's a lot to unpack in the growing instability of the markets right now so I'm going to resort to equal parts summarizing with granularity. Banks - All four Big Banks have reported - C, BAC, JPM, WFC  - and all delivered positive earnings surprises...

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Market Thoughts: As Good As It Gets?

Market Thoughts: As Good As It Gets?

Market Thoughts "What makes it so hard is not that you had it bad, but that you're that pissed that so many others had it good." Melvin Udall in As Good As It Gets movie Correct me if I'm wrong, but many traders are in a state of angst. Despite all-time-highs, they...

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Samantha’s Fault!

Samantha’s Fault!

My cheery, live trading room moderator, WallStreetJane, can be heard calling out, "Samantha's Fault!" And she's right. All FIVE Daily Market Thoughts from LAST WEEK (July 8-12) are now posted in the right place... under FISHING LESSONS for non-members, Daily Weather...

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Market Thoughts: If You Give A Mouse A Cookie

Market Thoughts: If You Give A Mouse A Cookie

Market Thoughts If you give a mouse a cookie is a children's book that came immediately to mind when reading the constant debate about the slippery slope of 'allowing' markets to influence the Fed's monetary policies. The plot goes like this: A boy gives a cookie to a...

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Market Thoughts: “Crosscurrents”

Market Thoughts: “Crosscurrents”

Market Thoughts In a prepared statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut citing “crosscurrents” that are weighing on the economy. Initially, dollar dumped and acted as a catalyst for S&P futures to shoot up. The bullish statement is the salve markets...

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Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts and Dollar Devaluation

Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts and Dollar Devaluation

Market Thoughts The US 10-year yield is chugging higher while the S&P drips lower to its 8D support - with Powell's speech released 90 mins before the open Wednesday (i.e. 8:30 Eastern). USD bulls will argue that any rate cut would be "one and done", but Fed has never...

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Trading Room is Closed Friday July 5th

Trading Room is Closed Friday July 5th

It's a holiday-shortened week and although I will be running my Live Trading Room Mon,Tues and Wed (market closes at 1PM Wed), markets are closed Thursday for Independence Day and I will be traveling Friday to visit family in upstate NY ... So No Trading Room Friday!...

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Market Thoughts: Stall Speed

Market Thoughts: Stall Speed

Market Thoughts I added no Volatility into the G20 event. I expected 'optics' not specifics. There was talk of compromise, some would say can-kicking: Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on an another $300 billion of Chinese goods (versus the earlier threat...

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Market Thoughts: Livin’ On A Prayer

Market Thoughts: Livin’ On A Prayer

Market Thoughts Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not You live for the fight when it's all that you've got Woah, we're half way there Woah, livin' on a prayer Take my hand, we'll make it I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer ... Bon Jovi As we close the first half of 2019...

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Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals

Market Thoughts: Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals

Market Thoughts Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals: Markets seemingly have priced in both. Aside from my assumption that Powell is loathe to cut, although he knows how to keep hope alive as long as possible, Fed will unwind their prior tightening when and if Trade Tariff Wars...

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Guest Captain Commentary: Bitcoin Teed Up

Guest Captain Commentary: Bitcoin Teed Up

Tony Greer is Captain at TG Macro LLC, frequent RealVision Contributor, disarmingly funny writer as well as veteran stock trader. I read his delightful "Morning Navigator" every morning for ideas and for the smiles! Here's an example of why:  Bitcoin Teed Up As in...

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Market Thoughts: Headline Driven Dodgeball

Market Thoughts: Headline Driven Dodgeball

Market Thoughts Today was a perfect example of how Headlines are manipulated for supportive of markets' advance. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked up how well US-China talks are going (“90% completed” after just last month in May saying they were "95% done"). At...

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Market Thoughts – Powell Keeps Hope Alive

Market Thoughts – Powell Keeps Hope Alive

Market Thoughts While there wasn’t a rate cut last week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to avoid mention of it today, in both press conferences he did everything possible to keep hope alive. But herein lies the rub: unless Iran caves, unless China caves, unless...

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My Benzinga Presentation June 20 in NYC

My Benzinga Presentation June 20 in NYC

After FIVE FULL days in NYC, I am back home and back to my trading desk. My feet+wallet hurt in equal proportions as I secured an Apartment for my daughter’s internship on Wednesday and spent the Weekend walking, drinking and dining with my girlfriend who flew in from...

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The Week Ahead: June 24-28

The Week Ahead: June 24-28

Market Thoughts - Last Week While away from my trading desk last week, the Fed confirmed a stronger case for rate cuts and SPX ran to new all-time highs. This is not a surprise given it was Quad Witching Expiration and 26 out of the 29 last quad witching cycles saw a...

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Market Thoughts – Undercurrents

Market Thoughts – Undercurrents

Market Thoughts Samantha has returned from her trip to NYC but upon starting up her computer this morning experienced technical trouble. She has a nice new gaming keyboard and will be posting The Week Ahead tonight! Trading Room will be open Tuesday and with it, ...

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Market Thoughts – Mixed Bag

Market Thoughts – Mixed Bag

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Market Thoughts – It’s All Good, Man

Market Thoughts – It’s All Good, Man

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Guest Captain Commentary: Facebook and Crypto

Guest Captain Commentary: Facebook and Crypto

Howard Lindzon, founder of StockTwits where I recently launched a Premium Chat Room, writes a daily blog about investing. In particular I like his recent post about Facebook and the future of Cypto. Here it is, short but sweet: One the biggest technology stories of...

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Market Thoughts – Blurred Lines

Market Thoughts – Blurred Lines

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Market Thoughts – Super Mario Levels Up

Market Thoughts – Super Mario Levels Up

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

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Market Thoughts:  Waiting On The Fed

Market Thoughts: Waiting On The Fed

Market Thoughts Pre-Fed Waiting is painful, at least this FOMC meeting where it could go any number of ways. Analysts will deem the decision Hawkish or Dovish and debate it for days. Regardless, I do not see sustained market strength even if the initial market...

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The Week Ahead: June 17-21

The Week Ahead: June 17-21

Market Thoughts Last week I wrote about  my Best Fed guesses and week before that how Treasury yields are on the MOVE.  But all that seems to matter is that markets are heavily betting stocks will continue to rally despite an economic slowdown (in U.S., China, pretty...

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Announcing Fishing Lessons!

Announcing Fishing Lessons!

Each trading day Samantha scans and synthesizes macro and market moving news in an effort to bring the best Momentum and Value Plays to LaDucTrading clients. At the end of the trading day, now Members and Non-Members alike can receive a recap of Samantha’s market...

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Market Thoughts – Breathing in Fumes

Market Thoughts – Breathing in Fumes

Market Thoughts Market range for the week that ended was incredibly tight: we opened Monday and closed Friday within 1 point in SPX. I even joked in my live trading room that the intraday hourly squeezes (bollinger band contractions) on some stocks were "wrinkled"...

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Market Thoughts: Expecting a Powell Pause

Market Thoughts: Expecting a Powell Pause

Market Thoughts Expecting a Powell Pause The latest data from the futures market shows a 31.7% chance the Fed will cut next week, 90% chance for July and 76% for September. Oh yeah, and they even see a cut for December. A month ago, traders saw a 9% chance of two rate...

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Market Thoughts: Embrace The Chop

Market Thoughts: Embrace The Chop

Market Thoughts Tuesday the S&P 500 put in a big technical reversal signal -- a bearish outside day.  The last signal like this we had was on May 1, which resulted in a 7.6% correction. However, I don’t think it will be that easy given the bullish engulfing weekly...

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Market Thoughts: Timing Is Everything

Market Thoughts: Timing Is Everything

12 Macro Catalysts Over The Coming Weeks The following is a note by JPM, courtesy @themarketear : 1) FOMC meeting (inc. new dot plot and eco forecasts) on Wed June 19–the Fed is expected to set the stage for a rate cut at the 7/31 meeting 2) EU Leader’s Summit June...

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Market Thoughts: 5 Day Rule

Market Thoughts: 5 Day Rule

Market Thoughts 5 Day Rule in play - Basically I have a play in my playbook that says, After a bottoming candle and 5 green bars/candles straight up, "on the 6th day, it should rest and reverse". (This logic also applies to timing reversals at tops and 5 consecutive...

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The Week Ahead: June 10-14

The Week Ahead: June 10-14

Market Thoughts No more Mexican Standoff sends stocks briskly higher last week. And this despite a MarkIt Manufacturing PMI barely above 50, the 37M low in ISM, the Global Biz confidence breaking 50, yield curve concerns and a very weak NFP. Bad news is now good news,...

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Market Thoughts: “Bad news is good news”

Market Thoughts: “Bad news is good news”

Market Thoughts Last week saw the official return of "bad news is good news" as the more bad news (NFP in particular Friday) means more Federal Reserve intervention.  Economic data was poor across the board but markets rallied because Powell said Fed would do whatever...

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My DailyFX Podcast Interview

My DailyFX Podcast Interview

I am a Macro-to-Micro analyst and trader - most are one or the other. I have retail and institutional clients - most have one or the other. Why? Because I can operationalize the macro into actionable chase, swing and trend trades for any size trader in a way that...

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Market Thoughts: Friday Melt-Up

Market Moving News Whatever Trump and Powell say... Macro Matters See above... Trade Wars and More On again, off again ... Yes, we're being cheeky with the above - it's Friday - but below market timing calls were anything but... Samantha Says – Market Commentary from...

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Market Thoughts: Draghi Dives Deeper

Market Thoughts: Draghi Dives Deeper

Market Moving News Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank won’t shy away from action to support the euro-area economy during a period of weakening growth. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April as both exports and imports tumbled, highlighting the impact of...

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Market Thoughts: Day 2, Follow-Through

Market Thoughts: Day 2, Follow-Through

Market Moving News  Job growth screeches to a near halt in May, with private payrolls up just 27,000. The ISM non-manufacturing data came in stronger than expected at 55.9% versus estimates of 55.5%: The service side of the U.S. economy that employs the vast majority...

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Market Thoughts: Bounce Idea Worked

Market Thoughts: Bounce Idea Worked

Market Moving News  Antitrust scrutiny rattled Big Tech. Regulators split up oversight in apparent preparation for probes into whether the firms' practices harm competition. The FTC will look at Facebook and Amazon as the DOJ examines Google, people familiar said. The...

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The Week Ahead: June 3-8

The Week Ahead: June 3-8

Trump's Tariff Tantrum causes the worst May stock market decline since May 2010! For the month, the Dow Industrial Average fell -6.69%, the S&P 500 dropped -6.58%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined -7.93% as the three major averages posted their first monthly losses...

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Market Thoughts: Friday Fraught With Danger

Market Thoughts: Friday Fraught With Danger

Market Thoughts Markets are trying to stabilize after a big gap down on Trump's threat of tariffs on Mexico on the eve of ratifying the New NAFTA. With that, don't confuse today's 'stabilization' with recovery. Here are the comments I made in my Live Trading Room and...

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