FISH STORIES / BLOG

Market Thoughts There's a lot to unpack in the growing instability of the markets right now so I'm going to resort to equal parts summarizing with granularity. Banks - All four Big Banks have reported - C, BAC, JPM, WFC  - and all delivered positive earnings surprises...

Market Thoughts Last week, the market 'got its' cookie. (Promised Rate Cuts=Cookie) Bloomberg: Stocks broadly rallied Wednesday after the publication of Powell’s remarks before the House Financial Services Committed in which the Fed Chairman emphasized rising risks to...

Market Thoughts "What makes it so hard is not that you had it bad, but that you're that pissed that so many others had it good." Melvin Udall in As Good As It Gets movie Correct me if I'm wrong, but many traders are in a state of angst. Despite all-time-highs, they...

My cheery, live trading room moderator, WallStreetJane, can be heard calling out, "Samantha's Fault!" And she's right. All FIVE Daily Market Thoughts from LAST WEEK (July 8-12) are now posted in the right place... under FISHING LESSONS for non-members, Daily Weather...

Ok, so it's not just one guest captain, but a whole fleet. This weekend I did my usual perusal of macro reading and I couldn't help but click on each of these articles from Bloomberg contributors and want to share them all! What the heck is going on with the bond...

Market Thoughts If you give a mouse a cookie is a children's book that came immediately to mind when reading the constant debate about the slippery slope of 'allowing' markets to influence the Fed's monetary policies. The plot goes like this: A boy gives a cookie to a...

Market Thoughts Powell is loathe to cut, but has been intonating Fed will cut. They have have already acknowledged “Inflation Shortcomings” which emboldens rate traders who have already front-run the rate cuts. But will they cut 25 or 50bp? And what of the US Dollar?...

Market Thoughts I can't use the same title of my Daily post from yesterday again - Stocks and Safe Havens Rise Together - but that's what's still happening. U.S. Stocks Rise to Records while Treasuries Rally! And as if on cue: Futures reached $3,000 just in time for...

Market Thoughts Surprisingly, I think the market is acting ‘efficiently’ this week. With an expected move of $35 on Monday - $52 for the week (either direction) – we had our tag of that $35 point move Monday then faded on profit taking/expiring options. Now we likely...

Market Thoughts I added no Volatility into the G20 event. I expected 'optics' not specifics. There was talk of compromise, some would say can-kicking: Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on an another $300 billion of Chinese goods (versus the earlier threat...

Bryan Rich runs Billionaire's Portfolio and writes an almost daily column for his service as well as contributes at Forbes. This post caught my attention as it succinctly lays out a theme I have seen presented about a month ago by Bond Manager Peter Tchir.   Bitcoin...

Market Thoughts Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not You live for the fight when it's all that you've got Woah, we're half way there Woah, livin' on a prayer Take my hand, we'll make it I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer ... Bon Jovi As we close the first half of 2019...

Market Thoughts Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals: Markets seemingly have priced in both. Aside from my assumption that Powell is loathe to cut, although he knows how to keep hope alive as long as possible, Fed will unwind their prior tightening when and if Trade Tariff Wars...

Market Thoughts Today was a perfect example of how Headlines are manipulated for supportive of markets' advance. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked up how well US-China talks are going (“90% completed” after just last month in May saying they were "95% done"). At...

Market Thoughts While there wasn’t a rate cut last week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to avoid mention of it today, in both press conferences he did everything possible to keep hope alive. But herein lies the rub: unless Iran caves, unless China caves, unless...

Market Thoughts Samantha has returned from her trip to NYC but upon starting up her computer this morning experienced technical trouble. She has a nice new gaming keyboard and will be posting The Week Ahead tonight! Trading Room will be open Tuesday and with it, ...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Pre-Fed Waiting is painful, at least this FOMC meeting where it could go any number of ways. Analysts will deem the decision Hawkish or Dovish and debate it for days. Regardless, I do not see sustained market strength even if the initial market...

Market Thoughts Last week I wrote about  my Best Fed guesses and week before that how Treasury yields are on the MOVE.  But all that seems to matter is that markets are heavily betting stocks will continue to rally despite an economic slowdown (in U.S., China, pretty...

Market Thoughts Market range for the week that ended was incredibly tight: we opened Monday and closed Friday within 1 point in SPX. I even joked in my live trading room that the intraday hourly squeezes (bollinger band contractions) on some stocks were "wrinkled"...

Market Thoughts Expecting a Powell Pause The latest data from the futures market shows a 31.7% chance the Fed will cut next week, 90% chance for July and 76% for September. Oh yeah, and they even see a cut for December. A month ago, traders saw a 9% chance of two rate...

Market Thoughts Tuesday the S&P 500 put in a big technical reversal signal -- a bearish outside day.  The last signal like this we had was on May 1, which resulted in a 7.6% correction. However, I don’t think it will be that easy given the bullish engulfing weekly...

12 Macro Catalysts Over The Coming Weeks The following is a note by JPM, courtesy @themarketear : 1) FOMC meeting (inc. new dot plot and eco forecasts) on Wed June 19–the Fed is expected to set the stage for a rate cut at the 7/31 meeting 2) EU Leader’s Summit June...

Market Thoughts Last week saw the official return of "bad news is good news" as the more bad news (NFP in particular Friday) means more Federal Reserve intervention.  Economic data was poor across the board but markets rallied because Powell said Fed would do whatever...

Market Moving News Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank won’t shy away from action to support the euro-area economy during a period of weakening growth. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April as both exports and imports tumbled, highlighting the impact of...

Market Moving News  Job growth screeches to a near halt in May, with private payrolls up just 27,000. The ISM non-manufacturing data came in stronger than expected at 55.9% versus estimates of 55.5%: The service side of the U.S. economy that employs the vast majority...

Market Moving News  Antitrust scrutiny rattled Big Tech. Regulators split up oversight in apparent preparation for probes into whether the firms' practices harm competition. The FTC will look at Facebook and Amazon as the DOJ examines Google, people familiar said. The...

Market Thoughts Markets are trying to stabilize after a big gap down on Trump's threat of tariffs on Mexico on the eve of ratifying the New NAFTA. With that, don't confuse today's 'stabilization' with recovery. Here are the comments I made in my Live Trading Room and...