FISH STORIES / BLOG

Market Thoughts It's been over a year now since the 'official' start of the US-China Trade War, if picking Day 1: July 6, 2018 – US implements first China-specific tariffs. I wrote about this disconnect between market price action and valuations in my SeeItMarket...

Market Thoughts When is the last time we had Rate cuts and QE at the same time?! We just got both and although it may not time or rhyme with 1995 and 1998 or 2001 and 2007, it certainly does feel foreboding given both trade tensions AND economic slowdown.  THAT was my...

Market Thoughts Despite market at all-time-highs, positive GDP growth, unemployment at 50 yr lows and, as a result, consumer confidence near 20 year highs, oh, and even with fiscal and monetary conditions at their loosest in decades, Fed Chair Powell announced the...

Market Thoughts Big deficits and looser monetary policy are negative USD, but as long as Currency-hedged US Treasury Yields remain negative then the USD is not weakened significantly. And that is in part why ECB, BOJ et al keep doing it – keep range-bound USD in good...

Market Thoughts Last few weeks I have posted my market timing calls and so far so good (tad early or wrong on oil+gas plays potentially): Thinking out loud, here are my short-timeframe Macro-to-Micro Calls for the next few weeks (already detailed in last week’s...

Market Thoughts  Bifurcated Rate Cut Sentiment When Fed member John Williams suggested last Thursday  that ‘r-star’ is .50%, markets took it as a sign that a 50 bps rate cut is in the cards. Bonds rallied, markets recovered their day’s losses and Gold and Silver...

Market Thoughts   Central Banks On Parade Markets have no fear. Stocks are at all time highs and Volatility is at all time lows. ECB, BOJ and FED are all due to report their rate decisions in the next week. Draghi goes first. And judging from the price action you...

Market Thoughts To catch you up on Last Week’s Fishing Lessons / Daily Weather Reports: Monday (yesterday): Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Volatility Friday: Market Thoughts: Oil About To Get Busy? Thursday: Market Thoughts: Let’s Talk About Gold Wednesday: Market...

Market Thoughts My volatility senses were piqued last Monday. I sent out a warning for a market rollover: If you thought that was a nice move from 3018 to 2985, well consider this: my breadth indicators (this is but one) are indicating the roll-over is just starting....

Market Thoughts Stocks faded hard into the close Friday, along with Gold and Silver. This was the worst week since end of May. So what changed? Most point to the market discounting that the Fed might not be dovish enough - cutting by only 25 bps versus 50 bps. Market...

Market Thoughts Gold Skyrocketed. Why? We have experienced a lot of dis-inflationary headwinds from the synchronized global slowdown and ultra loose monetary policies in the US, Europe and Asia specifically but globally in general. What could change these dis...

Market Thoughts There's a lot to unpack in the growing instability of the markets right now so I'm going to resort to equal parts summarizing with granularity. Banks - All four Big Banks have reported - C, BAC, JPM, WFC  - and all delivered positive earnings surprises...

Market Thoughts Last week, the market 'got its' cookie. (Promised Rate Cuts=Cookie) Bloomberg: Stocks broadly rallied Wednesday after the publication of Powell’s remarks before the House Financial Services Committed in which the Fed Chairman emphasized rising risks to...

Market Thoughts "What makes it so hard is not that you had it bad, but that you're that pissed that so many others had it good." Melvin Udall in As Good As It Gets movie Correct me if I'm wrong, but many traders are in a state of angst. Despite all-time-highs, they...

My cheery, live trading room moderator, WallStreetJane, can be heard calling out, "Samantha's Fault!" And she's right. All FIVE Daily Market Thoughts from LAST WEEK (July 8-12) are now posted in the right place... under FISHING LESSONS for non-members, Daily Weather...

Ok, so it's not just one guest captain, but a whole fleet. This weekend I did my usual perusal of macro reading and I couldn't help but click on each of these articles from Bloomberg contributors and want to share them all! What the heck is going on with the bond...

Market Thoughts If you give a mouse a cookie is a children's book that came immediately to mind when reading the constant debate about the slippery slope of 'allowing' markets to influence the Fed's monetary policies. The plot goes like this: A boy gives a cookie to a...

Market Thoughts Powell is loathe to cut, but has been intonating Fed will cut. They have have already acknowledged “Inflation Shortcomings” which emboldens rate traders who have already front-run the rate cuts. But will they cut 25 or 50bp? And what of the US Dollar?...

Market Thoughts I can't use the same title of my Daily post from yesterday again - Stocks and Safe Havens Rise Together - but that's what's still happening. U.S. Stocks Rise to Records while Treasuries Rally! And as if on cue: Futures reached $3,000 just in time for...

Market Thoughts Surprisingly, I think the market is acting ‘efficiently’ this week. With an expected move of $35 on Monday - $52 for the week (either direction) – we had our tag of that $35 point move Monday then faded on profit taking/expiring options. Now we likely...

Market Thoughts I added no Volatility into the G20 event. I expected 'optics' not specifics. There was talk of compromise, some would say can-kicking: Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on an another $300 billion of Chinese goods (versus the earlier threat...

Bryan Rich runs Billionaire's Portfolio and writes an almost daily column for his service as well as contributes at Forbes. This post caught my attention as it succinctly lays out a theme I have seen presented about a month ago by Bond Manager Peter Tchir.   Bitcoin...

Market Thoughts Oh, we've got to hold on, ready or not You live for the fight when it's all that you've got Woah, we're half way there Woah, livin' on a prayer Take my hand, we'll make it I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer ... Bon Jovi As we close the first half of 2019...

Market Thoughts Rate Cuts AND Trade Deals: Markets seemingly have priced in both. Aside from my assumption that Powell is loathe to cut, although he knows how to keep hope alive as long as possible, Fed will unwind their prior tightening when and if Trade Tariff Wars...

Market Thoughts Today was a perfect example of how Headlines are manipulated for supportive of markets' advance. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talked up how well US-China talks are going (“90% completed” after just last month in May saying they were "95% done"). At...

Market Thoughts While there wasn’t a rate cut last week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to avoid mention of it today, in both press conferences he did everything possible to keep hope alive. But herein lies the rub: unless Iran caves, unless China caves, unless...

Market Thoughts Samantha has returned from her trip to NYC but upon starting up her computer this morning experienced technical trouble. She has a nice new gaming keyboard and will be posting The Week Ahead tonight! Trading Room will be open Tuesday and with it, ...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Samantha is traveling to NYC for meetings, presentation at the Benzinga conference and sourcing apartment for her daughter doing an internship at an architectural firm this summer. She will be busy and away from her trading desk for the remainder of...

Market Thoughts Pre-Fed Waiting is painful, at least this FOMC meeting where it could go any number of ways. Analysts will deem the decision Hawkish or Dovish and debate it for days. Regardless, I do not see sustained market strength even if the initial market...

Market Thoughts Last week I wrote about  my Best Fed guesses and week before that how Treasury yields are on the MOVE.  But all that seems to matter is that markets are heavily betting stocks will continue to rally despite an economic slowdown (in U.S., China, pretty...

Market Thoughts Market range for the week that ended was incredibly tight: we opened Monday and closed Friday within 1 point in SPX. I even joked in my live trading room that the intraday hourly squeezes (bollinger band contractions) on some stocks were "wrinkled"...