My client letter Aug 18th:

A higher USD would likely time with a needed Tech pause, or pullback, depending on the rate of change. One key theme I have had for weeks is a Rate Spike. It is playing out but the 10-yr yield chart needs to pullback gently and shallow to maintain my 1% price target by mid-September.

YES! The pullback in TNX was gentle to the 21D and then bounced – opening up today gap up at .66%

Powell’s speech basically cemented the macro support – why hold treasuries if they yield 0% for the next 5 years or forseable future?

Then today in DM:

And here’s why bond desks are likely selling beyond Powell’s very-good reasons to sell (new inflation mandate and forward guidance)  – PRECEDENCE:


My call for rate spike, short TLT is working…

AND my note to clients: …“line in the sand” for yields has moved Reflation trade: 10YR YIELD 0.666%… also working.

AND why I still think SHORT gold, silver, miners short still makes sense…

Plus my intermarket analysis – talked about daily but reviewed here on StockchartsTV

So to confirm my August market timing call for rotation from Momentum to Anti-Momentum plays – like banks – they need follow through to be a key theme for Q4, but they are definitely forming very nice set-ups for continuation.

Reach out if you have any questions or comments: [email protected]