The Week Ahead: April 15-19

Market Thoughts The question on everyone’s minds – bears and bulls – will the SPY march straight up to ATH at $2940? With Big Banks out of the way Monday, and Old Tech (IBM) plus New Tech (NFLX) out of the way tonight, we are now a stone’s throw from my SPX $2920 Turn Target […]

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Commodities at an Inflection Point

Commodities at an Inflection Point

The energy sector is expected to be the worst performing sector in terms of YoY earnings, according to FactSet. Maybe, but given how much Oil has advanced this year, it can’t be all that bad I’m thinking! Even Bespoke came out with research that predicts...
Gone Fishing Newsletter: Bear Market Rally

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Bear Market Rally

This coming week will be the 10-year anniversary of when the S&P bottomed out at 666 amid the financial crisis. We hit $2940.91 on September 21 of last year, a 341.59% advance! But it took only two months – the best two-month rate-of-change run in history...
Market Thoughts: The Week Ahead March 5-9

Market Thoughts: The Week Ahead March 5-9

The Reflation Trade may be in the early innings, again, as last week Bonds dropped as Yields (US and German) spiked along with China’s Shanghai index. The USD continued to hold steady while Gold retreated as rates rose. Stocks traded in a tight range with SPX...
Gone Fishing Newsletter: Way Strong Still

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Way Strong Still

Here Are Some of My Potentially Bullish Intermarket Analysis Charts My Stock-Bond-Volatility ratio work says “yes, we may have a one-day wonder” in Volatility, but more likely we break the 65D and head down to bottom of the channel. That would mean SPX...
Fishing Idea: Is All That Glitters Gold?

Fishing Idea: Is All That Glitters Gold?

Incredibly Bullish Charts for Gold The correction we experienced last week – wherein $2.6 Trillion was lost in the Global Stock Market – was due to the Velocity of the Rate Spike that triggered an Emerging Market and Volatility panic (the volatility index...
Market Thoughts: Mid-Week Review

Market Thoughts: Mid-Week Review

Here were my Market Themes heading into the Week as discussed in my Live Trading Room: Yes Brazil, No China My 9/21 Brazil into Oct 8 Election theme: well these three cost/margin efficient trade tactics, those Risk-Defined financed Call spreads will be over 10X. I...

Highlights from the Trading Room Tuesday September 18th

NEW FEATURE : Nightly write-up of what we caught, let go and baited for another day! CHASES Got lucky – saw the $ABBV news. Recommended Sept $95P before news caught on about fraud charges in CA. That meant $1 stock drop for +250% gains. IV doubled. UOA up 4X....
Value Manager Teaches Me About Value

Value Manager Teaches Me About Value

In our LIVE Trading Room Friday, I had the pleasure of engaging with a client who is a Value Investor – a pretty seasoned one. Hans (who prefers to remain anonymous) is a Fund Manager out of Switzerland – a Deep Value/Fundamental type who happens to like...
Gone Fishing Newsletter: Bulls and Bears are Both Wrong

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Bulls and Bears are Both Wrong

MACRO CALLS RATE SPIKE – $TNX 2.83 TO 3.05% has played out from my call Sept 2nd. $TBT ran from $36 to $39 PT in proportion to the $TLT short I saw lining up on the chart (below). OIL SPIKE: I was fully prepared to fade Crude Oil at $70 today. Instead, I think it’s on the […]

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Fishing Idea: Gold Is In The Zone

Fishing Idea: Gold Is In The Zone

When is it Safe to Buy Gold? I have written about this subject before for SeeItmarket and my clients. I have been a firm believer that Gold and Miners trade down into a Fed Meeting Rate Hike. Why do I believe this? Because with each rate increase since December 2015,...
Price Discovery and Stock Buybacks

Price Discovery and Stock Buybacks

Main Points: Stock Buybacks and are most often credited for underpinning the market’s amazing Bull Run since the early 1980s, and especially the past ten years. Given our current polarized political arena, buybacks have also been criticized for compounding...