This category can only be viewed by members. To view this category, sign up by purchasing LIVE Fishing Room: MONTHLY Subscription, LIVE Fishing Room: ANNUAL Subscription, LIVE Fishing Room: WEEK Pass or LIVE Fishing Room: DAY Pass.
Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups

Second Half Market Thoughts: Fave Trend Set-Ups

Second Half Market Thoughts By my estimation, and as I’ve warned in my live trading room past month+, Summer Trading will likely include wide swings – in both directions, between SPX $2950-$3250. More than likely, Treasury will keep cash handy to use to support the market and keep it from dropping into the Election. Still, […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Risk Parity, Market Gamma & Option-Driven Equity Flows

Risk Parity, Market Gamma & Option-Driven Equity Flows

Recall the 1% Risk Parity Trade of March? I wrote about it here: Gone Fishing Newsletter: The 1% Outlier Event That Tanked Equities 30% – Mar 24, 2020 Back on March 18th, the S&P 500 was down 16% in 7 days while 10-year yields more than doubled. Some risk...
Guest Captain Commentary: The Road Through Deflation Toward Eventual Hyperinflation

Guest Captain Commentary: The Road Through Deflation Toward Eventual Hyperinflation

MacroVoices Podcast Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Road Through Deflation Toward Eventual Hyperinflation Every now and then you find an interview that needs to be listened to again and again. @ErikSTownsend ‘s interview with Dr Lacy Hunt on @MacroVoices  is one such example. @njabrooks I am a student of macroeconomics so I tend to look for the best teachers […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

StockChartsTV Talk: Higher USD, Lower Euro

Tuesday I was invited on “The Final Bar” @StockChartsTV by host @DKellerCMT to discuss my US Dollar higher theme – and EZU lower thesis. Check it out:  (Starts at 12:30 min mark) Big Picture: We are still in a bear market. And as I suggested in late March, I see a multi-month process of digesting […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Residential Mortgage Market: Mortgage Meltdown Perspective

Residential Mortgage Market: Mortgage Meltdown Perspective

Clients know I see mortgage stress in the Commercial but also Residential mortgage market to be 1 of the top 5 risks lurking under the market’s price action. I have written about the stress in mortgages: Mortgage Companies Pricing In Calamity Small Business and Mortgage Bailouts Make Banks Nervous And late last week there was […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Guest Captain Commentary: Lacy Hunt

I highly recommend this macro analysis: Lacy Hunt: Deflation, Not Inflation, Is Coming. It is a great interview with a very respected economist who expects deflation (including wage deflation), lower treasury rates (despite higher corporate and personal borrowing rates), and banks unwilling to lend new money (despite the Fed/Treasury liquidity infusion) – all of which […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

SaaS – Mission Critical or Just An Expense

SaaS – Mission Critical or Just An Expense

The “Recurring” in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for Software-As-A-Service might not be as recurring as it literally suggests – especially in a downturn. Here is some “sell-side” tech surveys and commentary inspired by Modest Proposal that highlights this problem and potential trading opportunities, short, in popular Cloud/IPO names. Lots of good fishing in these waters […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Guest Captain Commentary: “Don’t fight the Fed”

Guest Captain Commentary: “Don’t fight the Fed”

Don’t Tug On Superman’s Cape April 09, 2020 You can put aside your fancy chart patterns, and your in-depth fundamental analyses.  The Fed is now in charge of everything, and the Fed is buying.  As the late Martin Zweig advised, “Don’t fight the Fed.” After 10 years of having stimulative interest rate policy, the Fed […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Corona Relief Brief: Let Them Get Wiped Out

Corona Relief Brief: Let Them Get Wiped Out

This is a new series idea from a colleague of LaDucTrading, Jay Reynolds, who offers up some timely, relevant and personal vignettes on CoronaVirus news that you won’t likely get anywhere else.  These posts should be easy to scan and synthesize, with a peppering...
Small Business and Mortgage Bailouts Make Banks Nervous

Small Business and Mortgage Bailouts Make Banks Nervous

Color Me Skeptical Toward the end of my live trading room Friday (recording is posted by 1ET each day under the access link), I kinda went ‘off’ on how hard this stimulus Disaster Relief bill is to execute – for small businesses, for the mortgage industry, for consumers… On one hand, it looks a little […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

The Bad News – Mortgage Companies Pricing In Calamity

The Bad News – Mortgage Companies Pricing In Calamity

THIS IS THE STORY YOU MUST WATCH IF YOU CARE ABOUT YOUR CAPITAL!!! Bloomberg: In one of the most dire warnings, real estate investor Tom Barrack said Monday that the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of...

Guest Captain Commentary: Scott Minerd, Global CIO, Guggenheim

What do you think of the actions the Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken? I would categorize what the Fed has done to this point as necessary but not adequate. As an example, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility buys A1/P1 commercial paper. There’s about $450 billion of A1/P1 commercial paper and about $500 billion of A2/P2 […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Guest Captain Commentary: Treasury Yields Are Going Lower

Guest Captain Commentary: Treasury Yields Are Going Lower

Steven Van Metre is a CFP out of Bakersfield, CA with a weekly economic update that helps explain in layman’s terms the World Dollar Liquidity Shortage. I have reproduced, in part, his recent client post as a way to detail the current and projected future path of Fed treasury purchases to try and break the […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Guest Captain Commentary: Oil Conviction

Guest Captain Commentary: Oil Conviction

Tony Greer of TG Macro pens a daily newsletter and this one caught my attention. With his permission I am sharing it with my clients for you know I am very much inclined to buy the Oil-Value-Reflation trade (as I have written about for weeks), but as discussed in my live trading room, I have […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

Fishing Idea: Gold 2020

Fishing Idea: Gold 2020

Gold and SPX The following chart is a graphical representation of a tug-of-war between SPX and Gold – risk-on and risk-off. As SPX had fallen last week, Gold hadn’t moved in price and yet this ratio had moved higher – off the green bottom trend-line. This week the ratio moved back to the bottom of […]

To Access This Member Content, Log In Here!

MY FOOTER!!!