It’s been over a year now since the ‘official’ start of the US-China Trade War, if picking Day 1: July 6, 2018 – US implements first China-specific tariffs. I wrote about this disconnect between market price action and valuations in my SeeItMarket article, Livin’ On A Prayer. My refrain for the past year has been: Big Moves from sideways-to-lower into the 2020 elections, and no trade deal, as market prices in the risk:reward of Fed Cuts, Earnings Contraction and Trade Wars.
Gold would normally get my vote given the economic and political, central-bank backdrop, but even that’s a little too hot to handle with a pre-mediated Fed-Trump-Treasury action to devalue the US Dollar. I firmly believe the time will come though and wrote about it at SeeItMarket: Prepare For Pullback In Gold Then Relaunch – Just Like 2008