12 Macro Catalysts Over The Coming Weeks
The following is a note by JPM, courtesy @themarketear :
1) FOMC meeting (inc. new dot plot and eco forecasts) on Wed June 19–the Fed is expected to set the stage for a rate cut at the 7/31 meeting
2) EU Leader’s Summit June 20-21–Draghi’s successor could be announced at this event
3) flash PMIs for June out Fri morning 6/21 (investors will be watching closely to see if the recent growth headwinds grew more pronounced in the month of June)
4) OPEC meeting (scheduled for June 25-26 but media reports suggest this could be moved to early Jul)–the big topic of discussion at this event if whether the OPEC+ coalition of countries will extend the production cuts into H2 (the recent slump in oil suggests the cuts will be sustained)
5) Democratic debate June 26-27–the first debate of the Democratic primary campaign will happen in late June over the course of two days (due to the number of candidates); investors will be watching to see if Biden can sustain his lead exiting this event
6) US bank capital return announcements –US banks will announce their dividend/buyback plans AMC on Thurs 6/27;
7) G20 Leader’s Summit June 28-29 in Japan–this is the next time Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet (media reports suggest Trump and Xi could have dinner 6/29)
8) US jobs reports for Jun(ADP Wed 7/3 and Fri 7/5) –investors will be watching very closely to see if jobs rebound from the soft May trend
9) China Q2 GDP(and IP, retail sales, and FAI for June) –Mon morning 7/15
10) CQ2 earnings–banks kick off the CQ2 earnings season on Mon 7/15
11) US GDPfor Q2 will hit Fri 7/26
12) FOMC meeting 7/31–the Fed is expected to cut rates at this meeting