Samantha Here: Early each morning, I scan and synthesize market-moving news. I look at macro themes, currency moves and global economic indicators that support or challenge my thinking on the Big Picture and help me take the mood of the market. I like to assemble these data points so I can turn them into operational trade ideas for my clients in my Live Trading Room and StockTwits Premium Chat Room. Some may even make it into my Brokerage-Triggered, Trade Alerts!

Are you enjoying my Daily Market Thoughts as part of LaDucTrading’s Free Fishing Lessons? Why not upgrade and actively catch more fish? I invite you to Come Fish With Me!


This IS my thesis -and I have said it for months –

Once we hit $NYSE $13,000, we likely trade sideways to lower into elections. #2020 #NoTradeDeal

Now others are thinking/suggesting that if they draw out the Trade Talks much longer, you may see China say it will wait until after the 2020 Election to negotiate with whomever is in power.

Chinese stocks are already reflecting the potential pain.

Talk about a volume sell-off! The Chinese ETF trading in the US – ASHR – had prices collapse on record volumes. One. To. Watch.

We saw huge volumes in the Chinese CSI 300 ETF traded in the US, the ASHR US.

Speaking of Impact to US Companies doing business in China, here’s a shopping list of potential shorts…based on contracted earnings:

China Tariff exposure


Companies with high China revenue exposure:

CNB Article on affects to: $SWKS $WYNN $QCOM $AVGO $MU $MRVL $TXN $AMD $INTC $XLNX $WDC $AAPL $NVDA

$WYNN gets 73% of Revenues from China? Am I the only one who didn’t know that?

 

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Europe is Retreating Too

EU equities will have nice EPS momentum


And Yet, We Get This…From The Goldman Desk:

 

“near zero chance of an earnings recession next 12 months”? 

Famous. Last. Words.

Oh, and they are talking about THESE Inventories…and at fear of disagreeing with the GS desk, it is the Rate Of Change that matters most. 


From The Samantha Desk:

>>>PLEASE READ MY MARKET THOUGHTS POST FROM MONDAY FOR KEY LEVELS

And take care: $VIX backwardation just happened AND… the VIX Curve Inverted:

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I sold my VIX trade (see Live Portfolios and Trade Alerts) but opened up additional equity shorts (Chase and Swing) as the profit from the volatility move was out-sized.

With the $VIX at 19.30, this is the fourth largest two-day advance in volatility in the last five years (exceeded in Feb. ’18, Oct. ’18 & Aug. ’15).

@AndrewThrasher

 

And with that, I will wish you a great week of Trading. I will be away in Spain for the next 7 days. Given the recent excitement, you KNOW I will be checking in 😉

–Samantha