Market Thoughts
With that, last week’s move off $2742 support was aggressive and this current pullback that has started today may only make it to $2837 before resuming its uptrend (lower probability), but if SPX decisively breaks $2800 – the point of break up – we have a high probability short to $2718.
As I said in my live trading room today: There are BUYERS ABOVE $2950 and SELLERS BELOW $2700. Everything in between is CHOP.
Macro-To-Micro
It’s like “The Gunfight at the O.K. Corral”. If Trump’s demand for Xi to meet him at G20 is refused: Trump will throw a temper tantrum, China will retaliate.
Highly doubt Fed wastes a rate cut in June now. But it’s 5 long wks Post G20 for July ‘save’
I don’t expect Xi to submit https://t.co/plm8tVWj21
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) June 11, 2019
And with that, have a look at the volume under this move: .. maybe it is nothing. H/T @AlessioUrban
Stocks of Interest in the News
Macro Matters
The Fed has way more room to cut rates than other DM Central Banks:
US blended PE ratio is still 31% higher vs its long term average.
As it stands as of last weekend, the S&P 500 is expecting flat earnings growth for Q2 ’19, lapping the toughest comp’s from 2018’s “tax-cut-aided” growth last year.The Communications sector deserves a closer look given its expected 16% growth rate, easily the highest of the 11 SP 500 sectors for Q2 ’19. Brian Gilmartin
Samantha Says –
Market Commentary from Samantha’s Live Trading Room and StockTwits Chat Room
Jun. 11th, 8:51 am you know from my writings and tweeting this has been a theme of mine for weeks: how will the market punish the Fed if they don’t cut (sic)? Brinksmanship does not a healthy market make.
Jun. 11th, 9:24 am Nice move higher in materials. $X nice look on weekly and daily; move higher to 17-18 area possible (prior UOA noted last week/chart I liked)
Jun. 11th, 9:25 am July could be a looooong month with looming G20 meeting and FOMC at the end of the month. Chop to lower.
Jun. 11th, 9:37 am TSLA WORKING: 217 PT from yday HIT on way to strong resistance/PT of $225.
Jun. 11th, 9:37 am FB WORKING: 179 PT HIT
Jun. 11th, 9:38 am KWEB/BABA WORKING: 168 is next PT/strong res but gap above on WK would be uber bullish
Jun. 11th, 9:39 am AMD SHORT WORKING from yday AM after long PT HIT
Jun. 11th, 9:41 am MU from 33 now >35. NVDA from 138 now 150/21d WORKING
Jun. 11th, 9:42 am USD/JPY: $1.1B option that needs to expire (108.50 will pin it)
Jun. 11th, 9:42 am ROTATION INTO RETAIL WORKING: Retail numbers out Fri – this is front-running, as usual. $XRT
Jun. 11th, 9:44 am $UUP firming up
Jun. 11th, 9:47 am $GLD coming down with miners and more than a little bit
Jun. 11th, 9:47 am $XLE still looking for that hold over 61.85
Jun. 11th, 9:48 am $SPX PT y-day was 2906..made it to 2904. these types of moves can retrace up to 50%. Looking at 2844 for retracement area (to start)
Jun. 11th, 9:49 am $WYNN and $LVS from first of the week…remains on list of bullish reversals from oversold
Jun. 11th, 9:51 am $WWE continued weakness, below 50 WK MA and despite oversold could move lower.
Jun. 11th, 10:03 am SFIX >$30 looking bullish – could be trend reversal / bottom fishing play for Sept kinda thing. Needs to stay >$26
Jun. 11th, 10:06 am $USO still a wild card. If oil can’t hold $50 headed to $40. Want to see over $53.
Jun. 11th, 10:07 am $CRM ITM 15.25M bet with Jan 2020 expiry. You don’t see that everyday.
Jun. 11th, 10:08 am Iron Ore futures up 75% since November
Jun. 11th, 10:12 am $SPOT Sellers came in (at PT of $144) and pushing it lower. Back in channel.
Jun. 11th, 10:14 am Defense names getting whacked. Trump comments about RTN UTX merger (as limiting competition/doesn’t like).
Jun. 11th, 10:18 am $MDB break of 3DMA and looking for lower (with COUP PAYC WDAY)
Jun. 11th, 10:19 am $FB calls lead puts 4:1
Jun. 11th, 10:27 am NEW IDEA: BIDU >$115, must stay >$113 to swing long as bottom fishing play on Morning Star Reversal on Weekly.
Jun. 11th, 10:28 am Small Caps, Transports are still the weak knees. Financials at resistance at $27.50 as a Tell: bullish/bearish based on next wk action.
Jun. 11th, 10:28 am XAR sector in sell off based on Trump’s talk yday on CNBC of this sector consolidation (RTN UTX) being bad for competition.
Jun. 11th, 10:31 am NEW IDEA: GRUB >$70 (72) can have legs.
Jun. 11th, 10:35 am COUP, MDB, PAYC lead the IGV leaderboard for pull-backs. Remember those (COUP) puts I called out yday AM… they were prescient and they have also been taken off.
Jun. 11th,11:43 am $VXX calls incoming earlier and now market taking a leg lower
Jun. 11th, 11:46 am $SPX looking like a good swing short if head below 2880. To 2844 area as mentioned earlier
Jun. 11th, 12:09 am $BA weak (AM chase short idea turns swing) short below 348 looking like a good play.
Wall Street Jane’s Journal
Not every day, week, or month will be successful in trading.
Trade Idea: I continue to follow the action in $ADBE (see y-day recap for details).
Interesting Reads
Jim Edwards | “The private equity industry has grown to the point where it owns significant amounts of capitalisation in an illiquid manner