The One Big Thing

I’m back – from ‘Early Christmas’ with Delilah and Moe – and in other news:

• Brexit – The UK is leaving the EU on the 31st January.
• Impeachment – House Judiciary panel approves and advances Trump Abuse of Power Articles.
• Repo – Fed is putting in another $500B to back-stop year-end funding needs.
• Trade War – Trump says 25% tariffs will remain, but new China duties will not take effect Sunday.

Top Charts

Jobless Claims reported yesterday were much higher than expected + Retail Sales released today were much lower than expected.

I track Unemployment Claims for purposes of visually identifying when inflection points are near – see chart. Add to this the macro backdrop of 500,000 jobs that represent a NEGATIVE adjustment we are going to see soon (prior year March 2018-2019 in Non-Farm Payrolls according to BLS). Come February, BLS will announce revisions. We could see the average job reports have been exaggerated by 40K jobs per month! (H/t @philstockworld).

My Point? The Consumer Matters. Queue Recession Watchers

Top Tweets

It only took 12 years, unprecedented stock buybacks and $4.2T added to the Fed balance sheet – not to mention much more easing and added liquidity globally, but…

Top Trades

Cannabis Tax Loss Selling may be nearing an end after a near 50% drawdown in many pot stocks in 2019. With that, the “January Effect” may soon begin.

The average correlation between MJ and the S&P is 30% since the fund’s inception. That means the current correlation (-12.3%) is almost two standard deviations (22 points) away from the average. Datatrek

Top Reads/Videos

Important Read: The Repo Crisis Shows the Damage Done by Central Bank Policies

Liquidity is much lower than estimated and leverage is much higher. Daniel Lacalle

Sidebar note: IF the Repo injections are truly temporary, when do markets price in a decline in Fed’s B/S in 2020?

For more charts and links like these check out my twitter feed.

To Great Fishing!

Samantha LaDuc
Founder LaDucTrading
CIO LaDuc Capital LLC

Thanks for reading – Curious how I help active traders and investors like you?  I fuse macro analysis with market-moving news, give it context and actively trade while supporting clients who do the same.

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