The Daily Market Catch

Top market-moving themes and insights – Delivered free to your inbox.

The One Big Thing

My Market Call: Market Thoughts: When Is It Safe To Buy?

Oct 2nd: I believe we now chop and drop into the 9th and then move higher after that into FOMC on the 31st.

Samantha LaDuc

Premium Link: Weekly Fishing Plan Oct 21-25 

Trade Review: Fading the Pop in Netflix

Top Charts

With 19% of companies reported, S&P 500 earnings down 3% year-over-year, slowest growth since Q1 2016.

S&P 500 sales up 2.8% in the past year, slowest growth since Q3 2016.

  • The last 3 times S&P 500 earnings growth turned negative following an inverted yield curve…
    Q3 2007 (recession began Dec 2007)
    Q4 2000 (recession began Mar 2001)
    Q3 1989 (recession began Jul 1990)

…and when did the Fed start cutting rates after yield curve inversion/earnings decline… Sep 2007 Jan 2001 Jun 1989

Today, the Fed started cutting rates in July and is expected to cut for a 3rd time on Oct 30. They are acting as if we are heading towards recession. @charliebilello

Top Tweets

Liquidity makes the weather and Free Money knows no border.

Top Trades

Oh the timing: $AAPL (with $FB) report just before FOMC . Individually, they can cause a market pullback. So what are the chances both $AAPL + Fed disappoint, together?

Keep in mind: Oct 30th Fed cut expectation is now at 91.4%.

Top Reads / Videos

The Short-Volatility Trade Is Now So Big It’s Starting to Break

The February 2018 VIX blowup was like a heart attack for short vol. The more persistent threat — the shrinking volatility risk premium — is more like a degenerative disease afflicting the trade. @LJKawa

For more charts and links like these check out my twitter feed.

To Great Fishing!

Samantha LaDuc
Founder LaDucTrading
CIO LaDuc Capital LLC

Thanks for reading – Curious how I help active traders and investors like you?  I fuse macro analysis with market-moving news, give it context and actively trade while supporting clients who do the same.

Not a member? Here’s some more FreeBait – Fishing Stories and Trading Videos.
Want to forward this email? They can sign up for The Market Catch here.
New to trading? Learn How To Trade!

Become a Member  – To get Samantha’s insights on macro inflection points and market-timing calls:

Read: Macro-to-Micro Weekly Newsletter – “Gone Fishing”
Follow: Brokerage-Triggered Trade Alerts – “Big Catch”
Participate In: Live Trade Room – “Fishing Club”

For Institutions – Gain from Custom Consulting and Allocated Trading