Although this Interview was conducted on June 6th, I am re-posting for a few reasons:
- Tyler was more interested in how I think, and therefore approach trading, then my actual market analysis. This lent itself to a surprisingly relaxed conversation that provides some pretty unique insights into the ‘essence of Samantha’ (LOL). Seriously, I think you will get to know me better by listening to this podcast, for those who care to anyway.
- I forgot to post my “Notes for DailyFx Podcast“ in the original release. It laid out my market analysis at that point in time. Which as it turns out wasn’t too shabby 😉
- I re-purposed the bit on Gold for my Market Thoughts piece yesterday: Let’s Talk About Gold…
- Gold price divergence: price was stable/outperforming “industrial metals” like platinum and silver – this was bullish
- Both realized and implied volatility were at record lows.
- Macro backdrop distrusts Central Bank actions – or maybe more specifically their ability to act when they need to next.
- My BPGDX Index (presented to clients) was extremely oversold.
- Gold usually trades down into an FOMC meeting, but as soon as market priced in rate cuts, Gold soared as USD pulled back and yields dropped hard.
Gold is a sometime currency, sometime hedge, sometime commodity and sometime store of value when other assets don’t seem to hold much value. When equities roll over, the safe haven of Gold (and Yen – we’ll talk about this next), take on renewed energy! And in this case, it was as simple as perceived rate cuts (lower real interest rates) are bullish for precious metals.
I also presented in that podcast my thesis for higher Yen in 2nd Half of 2019:
I have a thesis – way early – that the currency market is going to have a surprise this year … with a break out in JPY. Not only is Yen at its strongest in two years, but my Intermarket DXJ:XYJ ratio work has broken a 3 year-long pattern – to the upside. In Forex land, that looks ominous for USDJPY breaking $108 and revisiting that flash-crash price near $105.
Clients can use my analysis for Trend trades, Swing trades but those who are in my live trading room or trade alert members can also have fun with the Chases. And we had nice chases Friday short in $GLD $SLV: