IF THEY DON’T BUY $AMD, $AMZN AND $AAPL, WHY BUY ANYTHING ELSE?
That quote is from me. Just wanted to make sure to use my Teacher’s Voice.
Are we getting to that point? It’s starting to look like it. Profit taking can turn into Selling which begets Selling. Right now, we are experiencing our first -1% down $SPX day in many months! And I contend, a move outside the expected ~$33 move will trigger more selling not buying.
That’s why I was so bullish $VIX – which is up 35% intraday. Yes, $11.05 was my LRE (low-risk entry) long from 9/21 with an estimated 3 weeks for lift off. Today is Day Ten so that call wasn’t too bad.
I have already talked, tweeted and written about the following themes – clearly they are working:
1. #RateSpike will trigger $EEM sell-off and Volatility panic.
2. #RateSpike IS #NOTDONE
3. Replay of Feb downdraft: Bond yield surge, FAANG dump ~12%
4. Short China, Semis, Tech
5. $SPX -1% day will beget another -1% day
Here’s another thing that got me into Shorting mode even before the market opened:
$GOOGL – US Justice Dept (DoJ) may investigate the company for anti-competitive behavior – NY Post
“May” “Might” … these are not risk-averse words money managers want to hear this morning.
Remember my $VIX Call. That’s all I’m gonna say about that. https://t.co/ej1izG1y18
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) October 4, 2018
And here was my PT for $SPX short before lunch:
FAANMGT is falling apart!
My Tweet Last Night – It looks so safe until…
Those currently long $AMZN pic.twitter.com/qFpKCzgGWa
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) October 3, 2018
I saw Scott cover some of his Chase/Swing shorts this AM around 10 and said this isn’t done, it’s just starting! Luckily, he loaded back up:
MACRO MATTERS
Here’s where we sit after the European close – where they likely sold as I mentioned in the room I thought they would: $VIX up 35% intraday, $QQQ -2.4%, $EEM – 2.8%, $SPX etc etc
Other than some weak bounces in the coming days, and weeks, I suspect we have made The Turn: Short Every Rally!
The main thing that will cause me to cover my shorts: BOJ stepping in: The 10-year yield rose to 0.159 percent – a level last seen when the BOJ introduced its negative rate policy in January 2016. . . Otherwise, I feel confident we have a two-way market now.
On a bright note, today is National Taco, Poetry and Vodka Day. So you know what to do! Don’t take anything too seriously, even the stock market.
Be safe and give yourself some time with these shorts. Topping is a process, not an event.
–Samantha
