NEW FEATURE : Nightly write-up of what we caught, let go and baited for another day!
CHASES
Got lucky – saw the $ABBV news. Recommended Sept $95P before news caught on about fraud charges in CA. That meant $1 stock drop for +250% gains. IV doubled. UOA up 4X. Wasn’t done dropping – stock dropped another $1 – but IV explosion was done and returned to mean. Not done.
Only planned Chase Today: $NFLX said >$359 = $367 PT (measured move, the way I do measured moves anyway.). HIT. Not Done.
$FDX long into EPS worked. Long for EPS didn’t. Then saw the $245 break in Trading Room and suggested chasing… lower. It closed near $141 and looks awful still.
$GIS long for EPS didn’t work so trying a bounce on trendline support as I’m not willing to give up on it just yet.
$MU short idea reversed hard above $44 LRE long, but it was too quick for me. Others went long near 100WK and holding into EPS Thursday.
SWINGS
Swing long $CAT from $144 to $149PT/200D on USD weakness – Hit. I suggested taking profits right away (as I think USD bounces) but then said leave some on as I saw Sept $150C just added 10K contracts.
Swing long $WDC from $54.50 to $58PT worked, and today was my one conviction long in AM as it ran 3% then I saw the Oct $60C accumulating, but stock pulled back to $58 by close. Careful, must stay >$58.
New Swing Short $AMD below $33.
New Swing Long setting up in $GDX above $28.50.
IDEAS
Massive call buying in $PBR + $EWZ. Nice oversold chart setting up.
LMT up 5 straight days, hit 78.6% Fib at $343 PT, and should PB but still looks bullish to $363.
$STZ has massing Jan $250C buyer – Pot Play?
Other Pot Plays: $CGC from best friend gap up at $33 to the 127.5% fib at $54, when it shook many out on 9/14 w a pullback… Above $46 is $54 this wk but if stays >$54 then $64 is not hard. $TLRY could chop until Jan lock up expiry. $ACBFF $GWPH $CARA in catch up mode. Don’t forget $IIPR $CRON!
$TNDM has increased 25X this year and 9/13 represented “A Top” I believe when it’s most bullish analyst said it was overvalued at $52. It was a dramatic drop to $40 yesterday, hitting $35 low today before bouncing hard. I see this at $26 in the not too distant future.
Short Spying: $HFC $DPZ $UNH $NOW
TREND
Trend Play $VKTX – one of the top 5 holdings of Biotech HF firm who told me about it at $1.70 last Fall – now $20 Their top holding today? $FGEN.
Trend Play $BABA still short from $185 w PT of $148. Couldn’t close/stay >$166. China not done going down even if Japan is rallying. BOJ Thursday!
Been crazy about $XLV for months as you know. Would be crazy not to get some protective puts now AT $94 .. $JNJ $BMY $LLY $PFE $MRK
$UCTT has Value, Moat + is Profitable, plus the apex of descending wedge implies higher w size. Watching with FNSR to place financed call spread again.
$DISH and $T look like great bottom fishing plays in Telecom space.
Trend Play $AVP popped 15% on Brazilian M&A speculation. Holding Oct $1.50C which really should be rolled.
Looking Forward:
I don’t trust EWJ DXJ run into BOJ Thursday so I didnn’t chase despite $NIKK breaking out and UOA galore in their ETFs. I think USDJPY closes at $112 tomorrow and brings market down a bit. ZIV weakened today despite the gains in SPX, which indicates SPY softness likely into BOJ.
FAVE oversold Value Plays to size up financed call spreads 3-6 months out:
- $SWK
- $COTY
- $HOG
- $P
- $AVP
- $LB
- $NVS
- $MAT
- $DISH
- $UCTT
- $T
Lots of Micro trades from trading room and from prior swing trade ideas of late, but I’m most proud of calling the $TNX #RateSpike + I don’t even trade Fixed Income!!!
I track $TNX, currencies + volatility so I can better time my Market Timing Calls for equities + options!!
And sometimes it also turns into a Trade: I recommended Oct $36C on $TBT 8/24 when $35.38, now $38.38. That equated to a Rate Spike from $TNX 2.8% to 3.05%!! Let me just say we are at a major inflection point with bonds and yields.
This is my synopsis of action from my live trading room. I will ask fellow traders Scott and Archna – each learning the Live Portfolio system and how best to support me in the live trading room – to contribute their top ideas/top trades each trading day in order to better explain what/why/how we are trading these markets and our respective portfolios.
To that end, their training and my work with the developer should be wrapped up this week! All should be live very shortly!!
I wish you a good rest of your trading week,
Samantha
