Morning Thoughts: December 15, 2017

Morning Thoughts: December 15, 2017

The final details of the tax plan are due to be released later today by Congressional Republicans, with two important questions still hanging over a successful passage of the bill. The first is on money, with the program needing to come in under the $1.5 trillion limit set by Congress. Every sweetener added to secure votes risks pushing deficits over […]

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Morning Thoughts: December 14, 2017

Morning Thoughts: December 14, 2017

Good morning! After the Federal Reserve raised rates as expected yesterday, and China’s tightening overnight, today it’s the turn of central banks in Europe. Already this morning we’ve had the Swiss National Bank – no change on rates, with a promise to intervene on currency markets if needed – and Norwegian central bank, which gave forward guidance on an earlier stimulus exit, causing […]

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Room Open at 1:30: Here’s a Pre-Fed Video + Personal Note

I’m long Gold/Miners and here’s why. The really big central bank announcement isn’t today. Operational Note: I sent this to a trading buddy via DM this morning and I share it with you because I value transparency and your trust in me. On migrating the site: this had to be done to create stability and […]

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Fishing for Answers: Fed Day + Beyond

Fishing for Answers: Fed Day + Beyond

A surprising catch! The first of three very big prints this week has occurred tonight: Roy Moore has been ousted and DougJones has won the #AlabamaSenateElection. This is the first time a Democrat has held this seat in 25 years. Black voters, mostly female, made history tonight. Impact? Tax bill will have a harder time […]

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Fishing Idea: Is Gold a Buy?

Fishing Idea: Is Gold a Buy?

In December of each of the last four years, gold put in a cyclical low. As gold drops to 5-month lows today, many traders are wondering if this is a low-risk entry or bull trap? by Ashraf Laidi Recall this same time last year, gold was heading for a 3-month consecutive decline, falling 18% on […]

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Morning Thoughts: December 12, 2017

Forties pipeline shutdown sends Brent spreads soaring The longer the pipeline takes to be repaired, the more the tightness in the February-March and March-April calendar spreads is likely to bleed into later months. A prolonged shutdown of the Forties system would accelerate the drawdown in global oil inventories and tightening of the oil market that is […]

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Trade Alert – #Quant XIV CLOSED

Trade Alert – #Quant XIV CLOSED TYPE SYMBOL POSITION SIZE ($1000) TACTIC: S or O THESIS EST DAYS IN TRADE E= STOCK UNDERLYING ENTRY PRICE S= STOCK UNDERLYING STOP LOSS P= STOCK UNDERLYING PROFIT EXIT ENTRY PRICE EXIT PRICE DATE ENTERED DATE EXITED NOTES Quant XIV 4 stock Short Volatility 5 $114.31 $100.00 $118.20 $114.31 […]

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Morning Thoughts for December 11, 2017

Highlights from Bloomberg: A Bloomberg survey of economists showed expectations for higher inflation next year, with predictions for the next Federal Reserve rate rise after the near-certain hike this week moving up to March. The pickup in global growth and the Republican tax plan were seen as the main drivers for the improved outlook for the U.S. economy. […]

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Fishing News: Week of December 10, 2017

Fishing News: Week of December 10, 2017

What are the chances the S&P 500 has never had a calendar year with positive gains in every month? Well, over the last thirty years, it hasn’t. Will we break the record in 2017? This week will be The Tell!   The Week That Was Markets continued higher last week on tax progress in Washington and […]

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Gone Fishing Newsletter: Why I’m Not A Raging Bull Anymore

Gone Fishing Newsletter: Why I’m Not A Raging Bull Anymore

My mantra is simple and what drives my Macro-To-Micro trading style: Policies lead economy. Credit leads equities. And Volatility reprices everything. So I get how the low-interest rate environment has driven the ‘credit-up’ cycle with the corporate bond market in full pedal-to-the-metal mode financing the equity run. From 2007 through Q3 of 2016, net buyers […]

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